A Crash Course in Palestinian Presidential Politics

For newcomers, here's a crash course in Palestinian presidential politics before the potential election on January 24th, 2010. It will help to demonstrate why the peace process is not only about Israel and Palestine, but also about internal debate. The Palestinian authority has two parties dominating races:

Fatah (the formerly militant, some say corrupt party of Yassir Arafat, now considered relatively moderate and the best hope for peace) and Hamas (the currently militant antagonist to Israel, which encourages attacks against Israelis but at the same time does better at providing Palestinians with social services, jobs, etc, which is why they get votes). There are plenty of other parties in parliament, but none can yet match the voter turn out of Fatah and Hamas...

Currently, the two parties have divided power over the territories with Fatah dominating the West Bank (northeast, bordering Jerusalem) and Hamas dominating Gaza (southwest, on the sea). Both territories have enormous divider walls and/or fences separating them from Israel. However, Israeli settlements, largely surrounded themselves by security walls, dot the interior of the West Bank; these are what are known as "settlements." Gaza suffered a short but bloody war with Israel last winter and an ongoing blockade. Here's a guide to candidates with the likely effects they may have on the peace process. This is according to my discussions with moderates in the West Bank this past year matched with current online research:

• Mahmoud "Abu Mazen" Abbas (Fatah) - Will talk peace with Israel despite the contraversies and violence of the Gaza War last year largely because the US identified him as the most trustworthy partner and backed up his legitimacy. Moderate he is, but he cannot get anything done without local support and most constituents are forty years into their quest to end Israeli new settlement construction. Now he says again he may not run?!
• Replacement? - Marwan Barghouti (Fatah) - The most likely replacement candidate, but he is currently in an Israeli prison in association with violence in 2002 (!!!). Palestinian nationalists would rally around him so he could draw votes from militants. But after Israeli prison, would he really make a deal with Israel? (By the way, don't confuse Marwan with Mustafa Barghouti, a sweet peace talker who appeared on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart recently.)
• Replacement? - Salam Fayyad (Fatah) - Could Fayyad step over from the parliament? Very unlikely. He'll probably remain as Prime Minister and hold the government together.
• Replacement? - Nasser al Kidwa (Fatah) - Yassir Arafat's nephew and former UN representative for the Authority, the West would like him, perhaps even Israel, but does he have the kind of leadership that can actually win votes from the Palestinian electorate?
• Replacement? - Mohammed Dahlan (Fatah) - An allegedly corrupt, or at least tainted, former Gaza politician, he may represent why Gazans protested Fatah mismanagement a few years back and voted for Hamas. Like the other replacement candidates above, save for Barghouti, Dahlan might not be strong enough to win conservative voters.
• The Opposition, Hamas - There are reports that Hamas may boycott the election, at least in Gaza, but I haven't confirmed this. If they do run, here's what you might like to know. The Parliamentary leadership includes Ahmed Bahar (Hamas Parliamentary Leader) and Aziz Dweik (Hamas Speaker of Parliament, in Israeli prison). Hamas may compete well with Fatah in getting votes and improving the local economy for the Palestinian territories. But Hamas has actively encouraged violence against Israelis as a response to past military actions and continuing alleged land grabs by settlers. If they win the Presidency, they would reunify conservatives with militants with great local cheer, but they will re-institutionalize the policy of opposing Israel's right to exist. And Israel and the US currently have laws limiting communication, if not negotiations, with Hamas because it is considered a terrorism-sponsor. Try brokering peace under those conditions.
• Independent - Also, do look into Mohamed Abutair as a change candidate who may encourage new ideas, debate, and cyphen votes if not generate a win.
• Side note - Fatah tends to attract voters from across the Muslim and Christian Arab spectrum while Hamas tends to be the party of choice for more conservative Muslims. There are also smaller secular parties.

For more relatively impartial or moderate external views, try the International Crisis Group and the US Institute of Peace. And if I've missed something important here in terms of candidacy and political goal, please let us know in the discussion space below. [This post goes along with a second one published the same day called, "Rally Behind Abbas..."]

[Photo: Hebron, Daniel J Gerstle.]