A Handy Guide To What the Hell Just Happened in Darfur

Exciting past few days in Darfur-land, if by excitement you mean the very real possibility of millions of people suddenly starving.  A quick guide to what happened, and what it means.

Basic Background - The Situation in Darfur

Darfur is a region in western Sudan.  The conflict in Darfur erupted in 2003, when rebel groups drawn primarily from the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa tribes attacked Sudanese military bases in the region.  In response, the Sudanese military began a brutal counter-insurgency campaign, including the use of Janjaweed militias.  The Janjaweed - drawn primarily from nomadic tribes - were unleashed against Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa villages.

Though Darfur is often portrayed as a conflict between "African" and "Arab" tribes, this is misleading - the conflict defies any simplification.  In fact, Darfur can best be understood as a series of over-lapping conflicts: a conflict between the Sudanese military and Darfur-based rebel groups, a counter-insurgency campaign carried out by the Sudanese military and the Janjaweed against the civilian population, and a conflict between primarily agricultural and primarily nomadic tribes over resources.  Not to mention increasing conflicts between and among rebel groups themselves.  And banditry, lots of banditry.

In short, a cross between Mad Max and a Hobbesian war of all against all.  Or, put another way, not a nice place to be.

As for the impact - there's an ongoing debate about how many people have died, but the number is at least 200,000, and likely far more.  [The UN, for instance, tends to cite around 300,000 killed.]  Almost three million people have fled their homes; 2.7 million are internally displaced within Darfur, while another 200,000 have sought refuge in Chad.  Most of these people live in overcrowded camps, where they're depended on the international community to provide food, water, and other basic services.

(Overall, the UN estimates that as many as 4.7 million people in Darfur have been affected by the conflict.)

Darfur is (was) the largest humanitarian relief operation in the world.  As of October, there were over 16,000 aid workers in Darfur, the vast majority of them Sudanese nationals (i.e. local or national staff).   Approximately 76 NGOs are operating in Darfur, as well as UN agencies and the Red Cross / Red Crescent Movement.

In total - aid agencies provided food to 3.5 million people, basic health and sanitation services to 2.5 million people, and clean water to 2 million people.

For more  background information, see this excellent summary by International Crisis Group.

What Happened Wednesday Morning

In July, the Prosecutor for the International Criminal Court submitted an application for an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar Bashir.  The warrant stated that Bashir committed the crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Darfur.

On Wednesday morning, a panel of judges on the International Criminal Court finally ruled on the Prosecutor's application, issuing an arrest warrant for Bashir on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.  (They did not act on the genocide charge.)

This is the first time that the Court has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state.

And Then the Fit Hit the Shan

Perhaps not surprising, Bashir did not react well to being called a war criminal.  In retaliation, he immediately began expelling NGOs responsible for providing humanitarian assistance in Darfur. 

As of Thursday, he's expelled twelve large NGOs, as well as one for-profit development organization.

So far, twelve agencies have issued statements confirming that they've had to stop operations: Action contra la Faim (ACF), CARE, CHF International, International Rescue Committee (IRC), Norwegian Refugee Council, Medecins Sans Frontieres - France (MSF France), Medecins Sans Frontieres - Holland (MSF Holland), Mercy Corps, Oxfam and Save the Children UK, Save the Children US, and Solidarities.

Some newspapers are reporting PADCO, a for-profit development organization (now AECOM International Development) has also been expelled.

The Sudanese Government has also closed at least one Sudanese NGO. (SUDO, for  those keeping score at home.)

It hasn't been pretty on the ground. According to the Guardian:

"Today police and officials from the state Humanitarian Aid Commission swarmed over the affected organisations' offices in Khartoum and Darfur, confiscating laptops and mobile phones, and even escorting staff to banks to verify account numbers."

The UN reports that aid workers are being "harassed and detained by Sudanese security forces," who were acting "very intimidating, very aggressive."

The blogger Thirsty Palmetto, writting from South Sudan, described what it's like hearing the news from Khartoum:

"I spent this morning getting play by play accounts of what is going on right now out there. Offices seized, files destroyed, projects stopped. A terrified friend sat skyping as she listened on the security channel to the sound of another NGO, one who was kicked out, being assaulted by gunmen as they tried flee."

There are also uncomfirmed reports that a mob attacked an NGO compound in Khartoum, burning three vehicles.

What Does It Mean On The Ground?

Bad, bad things.  According to Amnesty International, the expulsions mean that "2.2 million people face the risk of starvation and disease."

Keep in mind, millions of people in the camps rely on international assistance in order to survive.  And Bashir targeted many of the largest aid organizations operating in Sudan.

According to the Guardian: "The expelled organisations carry out at least 50 per cent of the work [in Darfur."

(ACF - one of the expelled NGOs - estimates that "the  ten NGOs that have been expelled [now thirteen] represents 60 - 80% of the total humanitarian aid that reaches  Darfur.")

The UN reports that the affected NGOs comprise "40 percent of the aid workers in Darfur, roughly 6,500 national and international staff."

A recent statement by Catherine Bragg, the UN Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator, explains the impact in terms of the numbers of beneficiaries affected: "With the loss of those non-governmental organizations, 1.1 million people would go without food aid and health care, she said, adding that more than 1 million would have no access to water."

Aid agency operations by the numbers:

- ACF provides assistance to 450,000 people in Sudan, of whom 80% are in Darfur

- CARE provides assistance to 1.5 million people in Sudan

- CHF provides assistance to over 170,000 people in Sudan

- IRC provides assistance to 1.75 million people in Sudan (650,000 in Darfur and 1.1 million in North and East Sudan)

- Mercy Corps provides assistance to nearly 200,000 people in Darfur

- MSF France: “The sudden halt of our medical programs, including vital surgical, nutrition, and basic healthcare programs in large areas of Darfur will have an immediate and devastating impact on the population.”

- MSF Holland reports that the explusion will leave 200,000 of their patients without essential medical care

- Oxfam provides assistance to 600,000 people (400,000 of whom are in Darfur)

- Save the Children UK and US support more than 1 million children and families across northern Sudan (including Darfur).

(I haven't seen numbers for NRC, Solidarities or PADCO.)

Simply adding all these numbers together is somewhat misleading, as people can receive different assistance from different organizations at the same time (i.e. one organization providing food, and another providing water and sanitation services, etc.)  Also, some of these assistance figures might include beneficiaries in South Sudan, who might or might not be affected.

At the very least, though, these expulsions affect millions of people across North Sudan and in Darfur.  And by affect, I mean leaving millions of people in the camps without access to food, clean water, or basic health services.

Finaly, even though the Sudanese Government has not expelled the UN, the UN still relies on large NGOs as implementing partners - so, expelling NGOs suddenly renders any number of UN operations untenable, at least in the short-term.

For more information on the impact - including fears for national staff - see this excellent article by Emma Batha of Reuters Alert.

But Why Would Bashir Do Such A Thing?

A few simple facts to keep in mind:

A) The Sudanese Government doesn't particularly care about the health, safety and welfare of the people of Darfur.  Or at least they don't seem to have lost much sleep after slaughtering hundreds of thousands of civilians there over the past six years.

B) Keep in mind, Bashir is now an accused war criminal.  And we're surprised that he'd respond by inflicting further suffering on innocent civilians?  Sort of like being surprised that an aronist responds to being called an arsonist by burning down another home.  This is not, after all, rocket science.

C) Further, to say that the Sudanese Government  and the NGO community have had a fraught relationship would be something of an understatement.  Fear and loathing is probably a more accurate description of how both sides view the other.  In fact, if I were to venture a guess, I'd say that the Sudanese Government jumped at the chance to kill two birds with one stone.  Perhaps on this one it's best to let Bashir himself explain:

"We say to our guests from the voluntary NGOs, our guests from the diplomatic missions, that if you follow the serious way, and you respect your selves, we will hold you over our heads, otherwise those who step out of line should only blame themselves.

Today we chased out ten foreign organizations, among them Americans and British because all of them are being used as tools by other organizations, our guests should respect us, or we will humiliate them.”

Such a charming man.

D) As someone with a great deal of Sudan experience once told me, Sudanese leaders aren't guided by ideology so much as a simple, overwhelming desire to stay in power.  The only question that really matters is "what do I have to do to ensure that I stay in power today, and hopefully tomorrow".

E) And, tactically, it's actually a rather brilliant move.  The debate now is whether the UN Security Council should invoke Article 16 of the Rome Statute, suspending an ICC investigation or prosecution for one year.  Both the Arab League and the African Union are already arguing that the UN should suspend the prosecution, arguing that the ICC's actions threaten to further destabilize Sudan.  (Because, after all, the ICC is a colonialist plot to keep Africa down.)

Earlier today, China - which has a great deal of leverage with Sudan - also came out in support of the Arab League and the AU.

As I understand the situation, if another Security Council member brought a resolution to suspend the prosecution, it would fall on the US, the UK or France to veto the resolution.  Tough choice to make, especially if Bashir lets it be known that he'll allow aid agencies to resume operations if the prosecution is suspended.  In other words, the US, the UK and France would have to decide between justice (yay, justice) and potentially letting millions of people starve.

Good times.

And, In Case You Still Harbored Some Warm Feelings Towards the Sudanese Government

Clearly, some in the Sudanese Government are quite enjoying the spectacle.  For instance, BBC reports that Akuei Bona Malwal, Sudan's deputy permanent representative to the AU, has said that "it was a 'coincidence' that the agencies had been expelled on the same day as the ICC issued the warrant."

Murderous and condescending.  It's a wonderful combination.

[Many thanks again to Eric Jon Magnuson for helping provide many of these links.]

[Photo from AFP / Getty / Time Magazine]