As the Global Economy Takes A Nosedive, Violent Conflict Trends Upward

While we fret over executive salary bonuses in the US, a far more ominous storm is brewing beyond our borders: The very real possibility that the global economic recession will lead to political instability and violent conflict.

A report released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) attempts to quantify country risk levels with the Political Instability Index, which rates countries according to 12 indicators of "underlying vulnerability" (is the country unstable in the first place?) and 3 indicators of economic distress (how healthy is the economy to start with?).

The results are no big surprise: Zimbabwe weighs it at #1 (Bobby should be proud), with Chad, the DRC, Cambodia, and Sudan trailing close behind. Well aren't these countries already conflict-ridden, or at the very least on incredibly shaky ground, you ask? What's the "risk" here if these places are already total basketcases?

The point is that the economic downturn will make existing tensions and conflicts even worse --- more intense, protracted armed conflict is increasing in probability as unemployment rises and resources become increasingly scarce. As the report notes:

"By and large, the risk in Sub-Saharan Africa is that tensions arising from the economic crisis will exacerbate problems, whether political weaknesses..., fragile institutional frameworks..., or income inequities associated with the so-called resource curse."

And while our friend Bobby Mugabe may have the honor of being the world's #1 dictator, he'd better watch out:

"However, there is more of a questionmark over the most obvious high-risk state: Zimbabwe. Given that the government has survived the almost-complete implosion of the economy, the rigging of numerous elections and the oppression of large sections of the population, it may yet be able to ride out the latest threat. That said, if declining commodity prices lessens its ability to buy off military and security forces, the Mugabe government may finally fall."

(Given how thoroughly Mugabe has driven his country into the ground, it's hard to imagine that economics would finally be his downfall...but you never know.)

So while the US Congress is penny-pinching and cutting corners in the federal budget to deal with the massive deficit, now is not the time to cut funding to our foreign policy institutions. A world in even more chaos isn't a good thing for anyone.

(Unless you're an aspiring human rights abuser, that is.)

PS - Keen on moving to a country where the risk of political instability is the lowest? Pack your woolies and head to Norway.