Ballots or Bullets: The War and Peace Elections of 2010

Many conflict-related topics are considered "sexy" (ick, but it's true) -- arms smuggling, child soldiers, the resource-conflict nexus, and terrorism to name a few -- but not usually elections and referenda. But 2010 may change that, as voters head to the polls in many of the world's least stable countries to cast their ballots in elections that could easily trigger, escalate or help resolve conflicts. Here are four elections to watch.

1. Afghanistan

An Asia Foundation survey released last fall showed that a majority of Afghans have confidence in their parliament. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for this May, and many international observers are predicting a bloody and unfair election season marred by assassinations of candidates, stuffed ballot boxes, and attacks on local and international election monitors. The Afghan government is also struggling to raise the cash necessary to pay for the elections, now just four months away, and international donors are wary after last August's fiasco of a presidential election. If the elections go smoothly, they will be a boon to the interconnected security and democratization processes, but pulling them off without a de-legitimizing amount of corruption and violence will require the international community to act fast and coordinate better than it has before. Four possible election scenarios are described in detail here.

2. Sudan

Sudan faces multiple crises in 2010. The ruling party of President Omar al-Bashir, indicted for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, continues to repress its political opponents, and efforts to allow internally displaced Darfuris to vote in the country's upcoming multiparty elections in April -- the first in 24 years -- have been badly hindered by a contested census and Khartoum's attempts to reduce the voting power of the rebellious Darfur tribes. While the now simmering crisis in the east still grabs the most media attention, violence in Sudan's south was worse last year, with 2,500 people killed and 350,000 displaced according to a new joint NGO report. The Lord's Resistance Army, the scourge of northern Uganda, is now carrying out attacks against civilians in southern Sudan as well. Add to this mix preparations for a 2011 referendum in which southerners will vote on whether to remain united with the north or secede. Indeed, 2010 could see a perfect storm in Africa's largest country. For in-depth coverage, I defer to my colleague Michelle, Change.org's expert on all things Sudan.

3. Iraq

March 7, 2010 will mark Iraq's second parliamentary election since the American invasion in 2003 and the first since its brutal sectarian civil war began to ebb. The approval of a new election law last month paved the way for the vote to go forward after months of disagreement between Iraq's political parties raged over the use of open or closed party lists, allocation of seats for minority communities and Iraqis abroad, and voter rolls in Kirkuk, a disputed and ethnically-mixed province of Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Turkmen. In December, parliamentarians decided the election result will be provisional in Kirkuk and other provinces where voter rolls are contested because of high recent increase in respective Kurdish and Arab populations. Iraq is still volatile, and its population is traumatized from years of war. Millions remain internally displaced and thousands who disappeared at the height of the conflict have yet to be accounted for. The parliamentary elections in March could set Iraq on the path to long-term stability, or provide the catalyst for renewed mass violence just as U.S. and coalition forces are preparing to make their exit.

4. The Palestinian Authority

The Palestinians don't have good years, but 2009 was a particularly bad year, especially for Gazans. Sadly, 2010 isn't shaping up to be better. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank now has virtually no popular support and is widely viewed as politically corrupt and weak in the face of expanding Israeli settlements and the continuing blockade of Gaza. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of the Fatah party will face steep competition from Hamas in 2010.  And that's if Abbas runs at all. There are strong indications he's just just too tired. Back in November, Spencer Ackerman wrote a must-read post in which he described the "nightmare that will befall the Palestinian people caught in between the occupation and the looming fanatical horror of Hamas government in the West Bank," and the political decisions that will influence its likelihood of becoming reality.

Photo: Fardin Waezi (UNAMA)