Blog Action Day: How Climate Change Causes Conflict

[A video from the Environmental Change and Security Program]

In an excellent post over at Stop Genocide, my co-blogger Michelle looks at Conflict in the Age of Climate Change.  As Michelle points out, climate change effects access to natural resources -- desertification and drought, for instance, reduce the amount of usable land available -- which in turn exacerbates conflict, a situation made even worse when not-so-nice regimes "play favorites" or manipulate these conflicts to serve political ends.

(Hello, Darfur.)

All of which got me wondering about the broader, historical connection between climate change and conflict.

Conveniently enough, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists recently ran an article entitled a brief history of climate change and conflict, mapping the connection between climate change and conflict in terms of sustained trends, intervening variables, and specific conflict triggers.

According to our scientific friends: "[T]he issue isn't one of surviving an especially fierce rain or harsh winter, but the cumulative effects of many fierce rains and many harsh winters. Next, climate change alone won't cause conflict but, along with other factors, will contribute to and shape it. It's one variable among many others, such as cultural, economic, or demographic factors. Last, unless a society learns to adapt to sustained climate change, its wealth will decline and its social fabric will weaken with each passing year. But even if a society faces these environmental challenges, a trigger--such as an assassination, extreme natural event, or random act of group violence--is usually required to ignite violent conflict."

The International Crisis Group has also analyzed the various ways in which climate change contributes to violent conflict.

As ICG explains, there are three main typologies of climate-related conflict: 1) long term environmental deterioration leads to competition over increasingly scarce resources; 2) long term environmental deterioration leads to migration, which in turn destabilizes neighboring regions; or 3) increased climate variability -- droughts, etc. -- leads to economic crises, which in turn spark violence.

To get a sense of where these conflict might play out, there's a great map from International Alert showing those countries most at risk of violent conflict stemming from conflict change. (Hat tip again to Michelle.)

For more information, see this resource page on the humanitarian impact of climate change.