Blog Action Day: Impact of Financial Crisis on Peace in the Middle East

In honor of Blog Action Day, here's a collection of thoughts about the impact of the financial crisis.

Wealthy countries and the Arab world will likely reduce foreign aid to the Palestinians, resulting in a further drop in living standards, an increase in unemployment, and deeper food insecurity. The desperation will likely fuel an increase in violence, as the armed groups generally have funds, and even small militant groups acting without instructions can spark an upsurge in violence.

As the United States concentrates on the economy and domestic issues, less attention will be paid to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. One consequence is greater freedom of action for Israel to address security concerns in ways that just might involve human rights abuses. Expect continued expansion of settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, vigorous suppression of nonviolent protests along the route of the seperation barrier, and a halt in what remains of the "peace process."

Inside an impoverished West Bank, expect a rise in Hamas/Fatah political violence, as local clans and locally based armed groups struggle to control the dwindling flow of resources. This violence will attract some media attention, but Israel will be pleased and the United States unable to do much about it. As always happens in these situations, terror against Israel will rise as some Palestinian groups will seek to divert attention from internecine fighting by creating an escalation with Israel.

Good times people, good times.