Can the Opposition Unite for Change in Sudan?

The opportunity for free and fair elections in Sudan has long since passed, even if the polls themselves are not scheduled until April. The government crackdown on dissent, irregularities in the recent census, and the unresolved status of Darfur are just a few of the conditions preventing that have made an illegitimate election a foregone conclusion.

Sudan's opposition parties warned the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in September that they will boycott the elections if conditions for free and fair elections were not promptly put in place; the parties will meet next week to decide whether or not to make good on that threat. But in order for a boycott to truly threaten the NCP -- which, according to a recent report from the International Crisis Group, is using the elections to reshape political power in Darfur (with 2.7 million people still internally displaced) and re-legitimize President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity -- the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) of South Sudan needs to participate as well.

The SPLM -- the dominant party in South Sudan and other signatory, besides the NCP, of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended two decades of civil war -- was among the parties raising the possibility of a boycott last year, but it is not yet clear if the party will take part in the talks next week. The party's primary concern is South Sudan's referendum on self-determination in January 2011, as agreed to in the CPA, and is showing signs of being willing to do whatever it takes to get there, even if it means throwing the rest of the country under the proverbial bus.

As the ICG report notes, the SPLM disengaged from the Government of National Unity long ago, but the party should recognize its potential to serve the greater good of Sudan by uniting with the opposition against the SPLM, rather than leaving them to their own devices. Pushing for change in Northern Sudan is ultimately in their interest, whether their constituents vote to secede in 2011 or not -- illegitimate elections are not good for peace and stability in the North, and violence and chaos in the North are not good for peace and stability in the South.

The opposition parties, including the SPLM, have a chance to create a credible threat to the domineering of the NCP, if they can redefine their narrow self-interest and act effectively in concert.

[Photo: Bertramz]