Clarifying Details on Somalia's Splintering Insurgency

Right now fighting in south and central Somalia is displacing tens of thousands of people, the insurgency has split again, and the country is long from securing peace and rebuilding. However, there are some important clarifications and reassurances to be made about Somalia.

In this post, I'd like to offer more detail than most news agencies are offering. It's a bit dense, but I think it's vital to consider whether many writers out there are covering the topic without proper context. Take a moment to rest beneath the acacia, smell the frankincense, and sip a steaming hot glass of cardamom tea with camel milk. Here we go!

Somaliland, Somalia's northwest, which considers itself independent, continues to do relatively better than the rest of the country. It's people enjoy a wide peace, how ever, there remains a threat of harsher than normal droughts, severe poverty that can lead to non-political feuding over grazing land, and terror attacks on foreign and government offices. But the border conflict with Somalia's Puntland State regions appears to be stable for now.

Puntland, Somalia's northeastern state, the African Horn tip, which had been growing more peaceful and stable over time, now faces not only the threat of extreme poverty and pirate gangs who have been basing many of their attacks on foreign vessels here, but also rising tension following the assassinations of politicians and judges. The attacks likely came from criminal gangs, but may be related to radical insurgents in the south.

South and central Somalia continue to host a virulent insurgency, but that insurgency has split. The UN refugee agency reports that fighting has forced over 60,000 people from their homes in 2010 alone. Violence now boils in Mogadishu, Beletweyne, Dusamareb, and other areas.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a country analyst for the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) in Geneva, helped me to clarify some detail. His agency reports that "fresh fighting in central Somalia is having serious consequences for the civilian populations ... The agency is appealing to the warring groups to respect international human rights and humanitarian laws by halting the fighting in civilian areas and also allowing aid agencies access to displaced and other vulnerable communities."

Here's where things get confusing. If you'd like to be engaged on the Somalia issue or would like clarification on Islamic radicalism, take a close look here. Virtually every Somali identifies as Sunni Muslim, however only a cross-section believe in Islamic government. The vast majority of Somalis, whether they would like Islam in politics or not, are peaceful and either moderate or pragmatic conservatives.

This large majority follow the Shafii School, and some specifically focus on the sufi (advanced, creative study) sects of Islam. This large majority supports the relatively sectarian Transitional Federal Government, currently led by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed (head of the Idrisiya sufi sect in the country) and stocked with many officials who either supported the warlords of the 1990s or the Islamists of the 2000s. However, the opposition is split now in three.

Relatively peaceful sufi Islamists, many of whom supported the former insurgency of the Islamic Courts union, remain as heads of many of the Islamic communities throughout the south. They may agree with the President's philosophy, but differ in opinion on foreign involvement and the role of Somali clan leaders.

A militia, distinct from the sufi leaders themselves, called the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamma (ASWJ), led by Sheikh Omar Mohamed Farah, takes it as its duty to confront insurgent groups or, potentially, government forces who challenge the authority of these conservative sufi Islamist leaders. Since sufism is frowned upon by hardline radical Sunnis like in Saudi Arabia or among followers of al Qaeda, this group is very unlikely to support al Qaeda or global terror. Based on my understanding, they are a group the government needs to include despite differences of philosophy.

The Islamic radical insurgency led in 2006 by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) was a temporary union of the sufi leaders above, with the far more radical Salafi Islamists inspired by Saudi Wahhabism and al Qaeda who all wanted an end to the lawless power mongering of warlords.

However, as soon as the Ethiopia and U.S.-backed transitional government broke the insurgency and eventually recruited the current President from its ranks, the insurgents split into two groups. Former ICU leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys now runs the Hisb-ul-Islam (HUI) militia, which aspires toward 12th century Islamic government.

And then in the far, far right radical jihadist Holy War corner is the Youth Militia, also known as al-Shabaab. It is this group, the al-Shabaab, and potentially its fellow insurgency and rival, the HUI, who are likely to have links to al Qaeda.

Their goal, which is frowned upon if not despised by most Somalis, is to create a Taliban-like government for Somalia. They would also support radical entrepreneurs who would like to participate in attacks on foreigners and foreign lands like the U.S. and Kenya. Currently, Shabaab is fighting the HUI as well as the transitional government in Mogadishu. Meanwhile, the HUI is also fighting the ASWJ in Beletweyne.

The UN remains very engaged on responding to displacement, humanitarian concerns, and rule of law while trying, if not successful, to build the government alongside local officials with very little funding. Recently, however, Amnesty International (AI) called for the UN and U.S. to stop the shipment of weapons to the Somali government and to improve its assistance to the ministries of justice and interior to include education on human rights and humanitarian law.

In fact, although AI has a very good point, they may have overlooked the UN's Rule of Law and Security Programme's finer points which have, if slowly, trained numerous judges, police chiefs, and officers on human rights, and initiated the first trainings of female officers and juvenile specialists.

As for the U.S. government, the State and Defense Departments remain very engaged on the Somalia issue. However, non-governmental specialists in the region see the U.S. so focused on counter-terrorism, the government elite, and al-Shabaab that they are underestimating the potential productive power wielded by many sufi Islamists and traditional clan leaders.

The point person representing U.S. voters on Somalia appears to be U.S. Representative Donald Payne of New Jersey, head of the House Committee on African Affairs. Otherwise, see global relations on ReliefWeb's Somalia page.

If you've fallen behind on Somalia, I hope this was a helpful way to catch you up on all the complex issues facing this important people.

Photo credit: Daniel J Gerstle (The Islamic Brotherhood recruits radicals in Sanag, Somalia)