Crimes Rates Drop, Candidates Sound the Alarm Anyway

Crime rates are down across the country this year, with declines of more than 10% in some major cities and even bigger dips in murder rates. But that isn't stopping our elected representatives and political candidates from spreading fear that the recession will lead to an increase in crime.

"Crime will probably rise now, despite the fact that we have a lot of good policing techniques," Manhattan District Attorney candidate Leslie Crocker Snyder said at a recent debate.

In the Houston Mayor's race, crime has been brought up in debates and televised appearances as often as any other issue.

“It’s probably very difficult for any politician to acknowledge that the problem of crime is decreasing, because that undermines the importance of the issue,” said Dennis Longmire, a professor of criminal justice at Sam Houston State University who has studied public attitudes toward crime. “Politicians use a fear of crime to garner support and get voters’ attention.”

There's a public perception that joblessness and the recession will lead to a spike in crime, and echoes from politicians can only exacerbate this fear. As the graphic above shows, Houston residents are more afraid of crime than they've been since 1995. Meanwhile, the city's major crime rate is at its lowest in nearly three decades.

Some research has shown that burglaries do rise about 2 percentage points for each percentage point in the unemployment rate. But there's no tie between violent crime and the economy, and our leaders should make this clear. Putting the population on edge doesn't help us prevent crime and it doesn't make us safer. We shouldn't let the recession become another excuse to sound the 'tough on crime' alarm. Instead, it should wake us up to our wasteful policy of incarcerating 1% of our adult population - and the alternatives that could lead to a more productive and compassionate society.

(Graphic: Via Houston Chronicle and Rice University)