Daily Darfur: Abyei Ruling Keeps the Peace...For Now

The big news out of Sudan this week is not Darfur, but Abyei --- a small, oil-rich region in the border region between North and South Sudan, coveted by both, and critical to the successful implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended a protracted civil war in 2005.

Yesterday, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague redrew Abyei's contested boundaries, which had been set shortly after the signing of the CPA but disputed by the North. Yesterday's decision seemed much of a compromise --- the "let's avoid war" decision, as Bec Hamilton calls it --- as the court maintained Abyei's boundaries to the north and south and redrew those to the east and west, dividing the coveted oil fields between territory belonging to the North and that belonging to Abyei.

Both sides seem relatively pleased with the decision. But yesterday's decision sets the stage for the main event: The real test for peace will come in 2011, when the South votes on a referendum for independence from the North. As per the CPA, residents of Abyei will vote on whether or not they want to remain with the North, or secede with the South. Hence the importance of the boundaries.

So, the big test is yet to come. A new ICG report on Sudan and the ICC notes that the North appears poised to thwart Southern secession --- the successful fulfillment of the CPA, then, will not only be a critical linchpin for peace in Sudan, but will be a major test for international diplomacy and peace-brokering more broadly.

(Peace between the North and the South are critical for Darfur-watchers, because although the conflicts are different in many ways, they also have many connections --- and if full-scale war re-ignites between the North and the South, so goes Darfur.)

Quickies

Dan Ngabirano writes in Uganda's New Vision newspaper that Bashir's arrest would send a "powerful message" to "would-be perpetrators of heinous crimes":

"There are, however, some people who feel otherwise. To them, the arrest would destabilise and worsen the already frail relations between Sudan and Uganda. They seem to ignore the grotesque atrocities suffered by mostly women and children in Darfur. Bashir's arrest will mark the process of accountability for crimes committed right before his eyes."

Along the same lines, in an excellent blog post, Professor Michael Kevane disputes claims that the ICC arrest warrant will derail the peace process in Darfur:

"Since your objections to the arrest warrant were largely consequentialist, and those consequences have not emerged, have you rethought your position? I would be the first to say that the arrest warrant complicates the various processes, but a "non-arrest warrant" situation (held in reserve like a secret hammer?) would also have complicated things. So I am not sure there is much basis to make judgments on the action."

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern over rising violence in West Darfur and tensions between Chad and Sudan.

[Photo from Reuters: People celebrate the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in Abyei, central Sudan, July 22, 2009.]