Daily Darfur: Bashir's Cease Fire, and a Heavy Dose of Skepticism

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir just announced an "immediate unconditional ceasefire between the armed forces and the warring factions" in Darfur.

But here's the catch: He also announced, "We will set up an immediate campaign to disarm the militias and restrict the use of weapons among armed forces."

Recent government attacks against the rebels--and, most alarmingly, against displaced civilians in Darfur--have all been conducted under the guise of disarming the rebels. So one can understand my reluctance in accepting Bashir's statements at face value.

Cease fires can't be unilateral--and they need to be enforced by independent party. You can't just say, "I declare a cease fire, so I'm going to take your guns and keep mine." I have a hunch that the rebels won't go for it. Just a hunch.

So until I see something to prove me wrong, I interpret this as Bashir's attempt to say, "Hey, I'm committed to peace, I declared a cease fire, but these crazy rebels are intent to keep fighting," and thus "justify" the continuation of his military campaign against Darfuri rebels and civilians alike. It's crafty, isn't it?

The Sudan People's Forum, widely seen as Bashir's latest attempt to "make nice" to the international community, called for a fresh cease fire in Darfur, and for the release of political prisoners.

But, as Reuters continues, "Sudan's government still has to adopt the recommendations, which are the latest in a series of proposed ceasefires and peace plans announced during more than five years of fighting in Sudan's remote west."

I, however, do not share Reuters optimism that the recommendations are likely to be adopted just because "the forum was created by Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir" and his "dominant National Congress Party has already agreed to be bound by the forum's recommendations." Bashir doesn't exactly have a reputation for being a man of his words, and there's a big difference between adopting a resolution and actually implementing its recommendations.

Another impediment to consider: The People's Forum was boycotted by the rebel groups fighting in Darfur. One side agreeing to conditions for peace doesn't bode well for chances of success.

So, as I've said before: I'll believe it when I see it.

Meanwhile, Egypt is stepping up efforts to seek a deferral of the ICC investigation against Bashir:

"Sudan is going through very difficult circumstances," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was quoted as saying by the state-run MENA news agency. "We are working ... to delay any charges or the court taking up this case."

You know who is also going through very difficult circumstances? The people of Darfur...who are still being attacked...by the Government of Sudan. Where exactly does that factor in?

Items of Note:

NBA All-Star Tracy McGrady of the Houston Rockets is joining the Darfur activist movement, and bring a few friends along with him.

Sarah Palin still cares about Darfur.