Daily Darfur: Who Are You Calling "Illegitimate"?

What happens on July 9?

The accord signed by the Darfur rebel Justice and Equality Movement and the political opposition Umma party reportedly has ruling National Congress Party leaders fit to be tied --- and wondering exactly what is in store for Thursday.

The new alliance declared that the current NCP government will become illegitimate on July 9, the original date of national elections set by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the North-South Civil War in 2005. Elections were first postponed until February 2010, and then put off for another two months.

So do JEM and Umma have a plan to install an interim government on Thursday, or is the demand mere saber-rattling? If it's the latter, then to what effect?

Let's see how long it takes the NCP to starts throwing opposition members in jail.

Non-cooperation can go both ways

JEM (once again) announced that it will sever contact with an AU panel charged with investigating prospects for peace in Darfur, after the AU's resolution on the ICC last week. A statement released by the rebel group blasted the organization's support of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir:

"They chose to convert the AU from an organization aimed at serving the aspirations of the people of the continent in unity, development and prosperity....to one where they show solidarity to protect themselves and their reign and standing against the interests of the people."

I wouldn't say that JEM has a monopoly on acting in "the interests of the people," but this assessment of the AU's reaction to case against Bashir is still spot-on.

Conspiracy?

Efforts are underway to secure the release of two NGO workers kidnapped in North Darfur. Mohamed Suleiman speculates that the government is behind the attack, in an on-going effort to drive NGOs out of the region --- pure speculation, it seems, as nothing concrete has been offered in the way of evidence, but it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibilities.

Rob Crilly's article yesterday pointed to a noted increase in targeted attacks against aid workers since the ICC issued arrest warrants for Bashir in March, after which Khartoum expelled 13 international organizations from Darfur, and abductions have led remaining agencies to move out: After four expats with Doctors Without Borders were abducted in March, the agency evacuated its international staff from Darfur.

Again, no evidence = speculation...but given this regime's history and reputation, it doesn't seem like an entirely far-off prospect. The diplomatic flurry over the abductions can distract attention, the successful release can make the government of Sudan look noble in the eyes of the international community, and meanwhile no one seems to ask questions as to why the government is doing so little to combat rampant insecurity in its own county. At the very least, Khartoum is guilty of negligence.

Just sayin'...if I was a control-freak dictator, it might be a strategy that I would consider.

Quickies

Prosecutors at the ICC filed an appeal yesterday seeking a reversal of a pre-trial panel's decision not to indict Bashir on charges of genocide. (I thought it had already been filed, but I've also been completely out of the loop for three weeks...)

Mohamed Suleiman reports the rape of three girls by security agents in North Darfur. The girls were looking for water when they were stopped by the men.

Paul West has another article in the Baltimore Sun about former Representative Albert R. Wynn's first lobbying client, a Finnish company with dealings with Sudan.

A UN plane carrying supplies to peacekeepers crashed in North Darfur yesterday, injuring the pilot and co-pilot. The cause of the crash is under investigation.

[Photo: JEM rebels in Darfur.]