Darfur Developments in 2008: Indictments and Escalation

Violence in Darfur has taken on a new character in 2008, with new fronts of confrontation and an ever-decreasing space for humanitarian access to the region. The latest estimates put the total death toll of the genocide at 300,000. The UN Security Council voted to extend UNAMID’s mandate through July 2009, but the force remains fatally under-staffed and ill-equipped—often unable to protect itself, much less the civilian population in Darfur.

Government-sponsored attacks continue to target civilians under the guise of routing out insurgency, with a particularly sharp increase after an attack on Omdurman, a suburb of Khartoum, by the Darfuri Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in May. The surprise attack, so close to Khartoum, shattered the regime’s myths of security and control, and revealed that the rebels are becoming an even more serious threat to the regime’s stability. Violent reprisals by the government against civilians in North Darfur included the bombing of villages, arbitrary detentions, torture, rape, summary executions, and more.

ICC Indictment Proceedings

On July 14, Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo presented evidence to the International Criminal Court (ICC) purporting to show Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s clear intent to commit genocide against ethnic groups in Darfur, including his central role in financing and directing the attacks of the Janjaweed militia. Ocampo requested an indictment against al-Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes in Darfur. A three-judge pre-trial panel is expected to rule on the matter this fall.

Al-Bashir reacted (predictably) harshly against the possibility of an indictment, and has drawn a surprising cadre of supporters in his efforts to pressure the UN Security Council (UNSC) to suspend the proceedings. Supporters of the invocation of Article 16, the section of the Rome Statute of the ICC that enables to UNSC to suspend indictment proceedings, claim that an indictment will interfere with the peace process in Darfur—although no viable peace negotiations are currently underway.

The African Union and Arab League have been particularly vociferous in their opposition to the ICC, with the support of UNSC permanent members China and Russia. However, the US is particularly adamant in its opposition to Article 16—surprising many, given the Bush administrations distaste for the ICC—and France and the UK would also likely veto such a resolution unless Khartoum makes substantial strides towards ending the conflict.

Escalating Violence

Rather than make substantive moves towards peace in the wake of a possible ICC indictment, al-Bashir continues to attack villages in Darfur—always under the pretense of counter insurgency measures, but nearly always targeting civilians. Rebel groups in Darfur accused the government of carrying out a string of attacks in North Darfur since August, often following the regime’s usual M.O. of aerial bombings followed by ground attacks by the army and Janjaweed militias. In August, Sudanese security forces raided Darfur’s largest camp for internally displaced persons (IDP’s), Kalma, killing at least 31 civilians, though some estimates are higher.

The deteriorating security situation is seriously impinging upon access for humanitarian relief workers, and constant government scrutiny and interference further hinders the delivery of assistance. Many organizations, including Doctors Without Borders, evacuated staff after a series of violent attacks.