Darfur: The Worst Is Yet To Come
In the surprise, surprise category - a recent UN assessment has found that the Sudanese Government is not doing enough to meet the humanitarian needs resulting from the expulsion of thirteen NGOs in early March.
Also not surprising, the Sudanese Government insists that it's doing just fine. Sudanese President Omar Bashir has pledged that the Sudanese Government and Sudanese aid agencies will be able to fill any and all gaps.
For his part, UN Under-Secretary-General John Holmes described the Sudanese Government's actions so far as "band-aid solutions, not long-term solutions."
As the UN and the Sudanese Government argue back and forth, the question remains - almost three weeks after thirteen aid agencies were expelled, what is the actual situation on the ground?
The short answer - despite "pockets of suffering," there hasn't been a complete collapse. Yet.
The UN and other aid agencies are struggling to fill the gaps. That said, they lack the capacity to provide the necessary assistance on an ongoing basis, as opposed to one-off distributions.
The real concern is what happens over the next two months, as existing supplies dwindle, the rains start and the hungry season - the lean period leading up to the harvest in October - begins.
A far more detailed description of the humanitarian situation is below:
No widespread hunger, yet
In total, 1.1 million people relied on the expelled aid agencies for food assistance. The World Food Program (WFP) has organized a one-off distribution to provide these people enough food for two months.
That said, the WFP relies heavily on NGO partners, including four expelled agencies in particular - CARE, Save the Children-US, Solidarities, and Action Contre la Faim. WFP currently lacks both the staff and infrastructure to replace these implementing partners.
According to a recent UN report: "WFP acknowledges that the one-off food distribution cannot be repeated and short-term solutions are unsustainable in the longer-term."
The real test and concern comes in May, when current food stocks have been consumed, and with the hunger gap just beginning.
As the recent UN assessment describes the situation: "By the beginning of May, as the hunger gap approaches, the World Food Programme requires new and experienced partners to carry out food distributions for over 1 million people in need in Darfur."
That said, the most vulnerable are already starting to succumb
Those who rely on therapeutic feeding centers and supplementary feeding programs - meant to provide food to the most vulnerable and malnourished - have already been affected. So far, 42 therapeutic feeding centers and 21supplementary feeding programs have either closed or scaled back operations.
A recent UN report described the situation in bleak terms: "Access to targeted feeding programmes in the most vulnerable remote rural areas and IDP camps has been decreased significantly, thus increasing risk of mortality."
To give a sense of scale - Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) was providing food to 7,000 severely and moderately malnourished children. Following the expulsion of MSF France and Holland, as well as the withdrawal of other MSF chapters following the kidnapping (and eventual release) of four MSF staff two weeks ago, these children risk no longer being treated.
According to a recent article in the New York Times:
"Feeding centers for malnourished children were already seeing hundreds of patients a week, and those numbers normally quadruple in the lean season before the harvest. Without organizations that run the specialized clinics that feed underweight and malnourished children with fortified porridge, more children will surely die, aid workers in Darfur said."
What happens when the water wells run dry?
Or, more accurately, what happens when there's no more fuel to run the water pumps, or chemicals to chlorinate the water? The expelled aid agencies together helped provide clean drinking water to 1.16 million people. Of these, 850,000 people are still able to access clean water, thanks to the combined efforts of the Sudanese Government water department, UNICEF, and Sudanese NGOs.
That said, the recent UN assessment mission warned of perhaps worse to come: "major water shortages could develop within two to four weeks, as from March 18, if fuel, incentives and spare parts are not continuously provided."
And then there's meningitis, and cholera - made worse by the collapse of health services
Lack of clean water means increased risk from meningitis and cholera and other water-borne diseases, especially once the rainy season begins in a few weeks. Yet health services across Darfur have been crippled - altogether, the thirteen expelled agencies together provided health care to 1.5 million people.
As of now, 650,000 people are without access to full care.
According to the World Health Organization, a number of districts - including Jebel Marra in West Darfur, and Shearia in South Darfur - now lack all health services. Other districts have also been affected - 83% of health services have disappeared in Kass (South Darfur), as have 63% of health services in Habila (West Darfur), 22% in Kutum (North Darfur) and 20% in El Geneina (West Darfur).
(For a map showing the reduction in health services across Darfur, see here.)
The New York Times described the situation in Otash camp:
"The sign outside the clinic in Otash camp reads '8-hour service daily.'
On Friday, Haider Ismael al-Amin lay in his mother’s arms, his 10-year-old body withered and weak from dehydration after a night of vomiting. But the door to the clinic was locked. After 30 minutes of waiting, his family gave up.
...
At the edge of Otash camp, a collection of some 30,000 people in South Darfur, the male relatives of Asha Adam dug her tiny grave. The infant girl died after suffering from uncontrollable diarrhea, her family said. Such illnesses have become common, as water has become scarce in the camp and living conditions deteriorate, according to residents."
The LA Times added this report from Zam Zam camp:
"Feverish and dehydrated since fleeing to this overcrowded displacement camp last month, 2-year-old Manahel Abakar was supposed to be one the beneficiaries of the International Criminal Court effort to bring justice to Darfur.
Instead she became one of its unintended casualties.
The little girl died last week on a straw mat under the baking sun, surrounded by anxious family members helpless to save her. Their only shelter is a threadbare blanket, sagging over broken tree branches.
The situation at the Zam Zam camp, hard even in the best of times, is more desperate because the aid groups that deliver emergency food, water and healthcare were shut down this month by Sudan's government in retaliation after the ICC issued an arrest warrant for President Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir."
And what about critical non-food items?
"With the rainy season approaching, replenishment of key items such as basic household items and kitchen supplies to the population is essential...All [UN Joint Logistic Centre’s non-food itmes] in Darfur are housed in premises that are not currently accessible to humanitarians. Despite the needs, and the availability of the items on the ground, the items cannot be distributed."
For example, the UN is currently unable to deliver shelter materials to 692,400 people; a situation which is especially urgent as the rains start in a few weeks.
Finally, not a good time to be in Kalma, Kass or Zam Zam camps
Kalma and Kass - two of the largest displaced person camps in South Darfur - have refused all aid (even from the UN) until the expelled agencies are allowed to return. It's a sign both of how deeply some of the displaced distrust their own government, as well as the increasingly politicization of the camps themselves. According to an activist in Kalma camp:
"If we allow [the Sudanese Government or other aid agencies] to distribute the food, then the government will be able to say to the world that everything is OK in Kalma. We want all the other problems solved first."
Both camps are running short of medicine, food and clean water.
The LA Times recently described the situation in Kalma:
"The camps motorized water pumps aren't working because there is no fuel, and women have to fetch water from a polluted river nearby, aid officials said. Kalma's three health clinics have shut down, even as meningitis sweeps through the camp."
According to a local government official: "If they want the services, we are ready to facilitate. But we can't force anybody to eat."
Such suspicion is not limited to Kalma and Kass - a leader in Al Salaam camp, in North Darfur, described government agencies and Sudanese aid organizations as spies, going on to say: "Rather than help us, they want to hurt us. We will never accept them."
Meanwhile, Zam Zam camp offers a glimpse of what might be ahead. Services in the camp were already overstretched, especially with the arrival of 37,000 newly displaced persons, fleeing recent fighting in North Darfur. As a recent USAID assessment mission reported:
"[Internally displaced persons] in the new section of the camp reported two- to three-hour waits at water pumps and a lack of health services, food distributions, livelihood activities, and emergency relief commodities, particularly plastic sheeting for temporary shelter. Although designed to host 65,000 individuals, Zam Zam camp currently holds more than 90,000 individuals, according to U.N. estimates."
The situation has become so desperate that UNAMID - the hybrid AU-UN peacekeeping force - has started trucking in water, and plans to continue doing so as long as necessary.
[Photo of a woman in Otash camp from the New York Times]
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