Do We Dare Hope for a Senate Finance Committee Deal?

The opening statements haven’t yet been read. The first amendment hasn’t been voted on. The spinning and posturing has regrettably only just begun. But for all that, might the Senate Finance Committee only be days away from completing their work and passing a bill out of committee?

I didn’t think so last week, but am beginning to be persuaded upon perusing the amendments to the Baucus bill. Yes, the total is now up to a staggering 564 proposed amendments. You’d think that would translate to weeks of work, especially given the theater of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee mark-up, where Republicans requested -- and received! -- votes on amendments that the Democrats were willing to accept by unanimous consent. And granted, the glut of Republican amendments foredoomed to failure, either because they would dramatically weaken the ability of Americans to purchase high-quality, affordable insurance or because, well, they’re just silly (Sen. Hatch’s “letter U” amendment, or the request to change every instance of the word “fee” into the word “tax”) makes it seem like we have a long way to go. But there are some intriguing amendments from Republicans among the dreck – and the dreck can’t last forever.

The real reasons for optimism come from the either side of the committee room -- not just with Democrats but with Sen. Olympia Snowe. Looking at what these senators wish to change, we honestly don’t have that far to go to find a compromise that will net 12 or 13 votes, enough to pass out of committee. And that’s the key for momentum. We don’t necessarily need a deal that can pass the Senate or both Houses of Congress out of the next week or two. We just need a deal that can be passed out of committee.  We need to keep the ball rolling.

Ezra Klein summarizes the differences as being about affordability, financing and the public option. Sen. Max Baucus himself opened the door to the affordability question, with his own amendment to increase subsidies by some $28 billion. We’ll see what that translates to in terms of a detailed proposal, but clearly he’s not feeling bound to the skimpy affordability provisions he negotiated with Republicans Grassley and Enzi during the “gang of six” meetings -- particularly since neither gentleman seems inclined to vote for the package they helped negotiate. Sen. Olympia Snowe’s set of amendments would also dramatically help increase affordability and access to the plans in the Health Exchange. There’s every reason for optimism. There’s a real deal to be had here.

Financing is, of course, more difficult. That excise tax on the most expensive health insurance plans is likely to stick around, at least through a Senate Finance Committee mark-up. But, counter-intuitively, that’s not a bad thing. Sen. Carper is the only Democrat to propose a new financing scheme, and it’s one that most members of the committee have already rejected. Sen. Rockefeller’s slight modification -- adding a cap itemized deductions for the wealthy at 35% (instead of 39%) -- may just provide the wiggle-room to make the excise tax less onerous; Baucus already seems inclined to make it happen. Barring a left-field crazy idea, there's a compromise to be had here, as well.

That leaves us with what this health reform fight always seems to boil down to: the public option. That will generate a hell of a lot of fireworks.  But the fate of the public option won’t be sealed in the Senate Finance mark-up. There’s still merging the Finance and the HELP bill (which contains a public option), and then merging the Senate bill with the House bill (which also contains a public option).  But we need a bill out of Senate Finance before we can even begin that mud-wrestling.

So two out of three controversial issues may actually be solved relatively easily -- at least enough for a bill to pass out of committee. Or it could be an epic legislative train-wreck. But on this eve before the politicking begins again in earnest, at least, there is cause for hope.

(Photo is in the public domain.)