For Southern Sudanese, a Deal's a Deal

If southern Sudanese are denied their right to a self-determination referendum next January, there will be a renewal of civil war with the North -- a war that already left two million people dead.

The referendum was the cornerstone of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the war, and judging from remarks by representatives of the Government of South Sudan at an event in Washington, D.C., last week, the general attitude regarding any efforts to thwart the referendum is, basically, "Bring it." A deal's a deal.

Given the utter devastation of the previous war, comments undermining the referendum seem rather unwise. African Union Commission Chairman Jean Ping, who is among several regional leaders keen on Sudanese unity, told reporters that southern independence would create a disastrous ripple effect across Sudan, with the country's other marginalized regions -- such as Darfur -- wanting to follow suit. While Ping is right to warn of the risk of a return to full-scale civil war, questioning the key tenets of Sudan's fragile peace agreement are not likely to help calm this political "powder keg."

The CPA gave Sudan a six-year transitional period to reconcile the North and the South and "make unity attractive" -- and like it or not, it gave southerner's an opt-out at the end. Charged political posturing in favor of the North, which is already being accused of sabotaging the referendum, not only contributes to the tense environment, but places an undue burden of blame on southerners for exercising a right agreed to by the signatories of the CPA.

If regional leaders are serious about stopping a backsliding into civil war -- and very likely, the large scale atrocities seen before -- they should refrain from prejudging the outcome of the referendum and focus instead on ensuring the peaceful implementation of the remainder of the CPA.

Photo credit: UN Photo/Tim McKulka.