Friday Futures: The End of the Condom?

by Alanna Shaikh · 2009-06-19 11:03:00 UTC
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(photo credit: mugley)

This is the start of a new feature, Friday Futures, where I try my hand at looking forward into the future of global health. This week I'll look at contraception and STI prevention, and  I think we're going to see a lot less condom use.

We'll see an increasing split between the technology for prevention of STIs and the technology for prevention of HIV/AIDS. A lot of factors will come together, to let people choose to protect themselves against HIV and STIs, or prevent pregnancy, or both. They will be able to calibrate their choices with more specificity.

I think we'll see a contraceptive pill for men in the next five to ten years, which will give men an option for contraception other than condoms.  We may also, finally, see come progress on vaginal and rectal microbicides to prevent STIs and HIV, which will provide a defense against STIs and HIV without condom use.

We'll also see more people choosing permanent contraception. Uncertain economic times will make people more committed once they choose to limit family size. Better, nonsurgical, techniques will make permanent contraception a more popular choice.

This will mean a major decrease in condom popularity. The condom has always been a clumsy tool. Not just because it combines functions which may not both be necessary, but because it requires consistent use and remains unpopular with many men. Small lots of specialty condoms will retain some popularity with niche populations; for example, condoms designed for anal sex will have a following among people who distrust microbicides.

Alanna Shaikh
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