Gay Marriage and the 2012 Iowa Caucuses

Earlier this week, when anti-gay legislators in the state of Iowa failed in their efforts to move forward a ballot measure that would have repealed marriage equality in the state, one thing became absolutely certain: same-sex marriage will be on a lot of people's minds once the 2012 Iowa Caucuses heat up.

Lest you think it's too early to start talking about Iowa, think again. The caucuses are less than two years away now, and judging by the political trips of folks like Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin, Iowa is front and center for a lot of GOP Presidential hopefuls. Every single one of these cats, as well as a certain President running for re-election, is going to be asked about same-sex marriage. How will they answer?

That's almost a rhetorical question, given the past comments made by folks like Palin (she doesn't want to redefine the meaning of marriage, which for her is less about two people loving each other and more about a penis and a vagina belonging together) or Huckabee (who got so tired of ragging on same-sex marriage, he actually went further right to complain about sodomy last year). But is one GOP candidate looking to move away from harping on social issues like same-sex marriage?

Maybe. And it's Mitt Romney, who may see a second chance to the GOP nomination not as a fire and brimstone social conservative, but as someone less interested in making a big deal out of two women or two men getting married.

The Boston Phoenix writes that there's a new Mitt in town, and he wants to be the country's budget manager in chief. Sure, in 2008, Romney made no secret that he was a wealthy man with a successful venture capital firm under his belt. But he also made social issues like gay marriage a centerpiece of his campaign, in many respects trying to out-gun Mike Huckabee on social issues (a tough assignment, given that Huckabee is a conservative preacher who is BFFs with Chuck Norris).

That likely won't be the case in 2012, where in order to win over social conservatives, Romney would have to run to the right of both Huckabee again AND folks like Sarah Palin. And really, the only folks to the right of these two tend to be Tea Party members who patrol the U.S.-Mexico border.

So cue re-invention. Romney, who already transitioned from a politician who said he'd be better on gay rights than Ted Kennedy to a politician who said he'd be tougher on gay marriage than George W. Bush, is now transitioning again, into a politician who'd rather just focus on the economy.

"In (2008), Romney tacked hard to the right — where Romney and his strategists perceived an opening as the conservative alternative to front-runners John McCain and Rudy Giuliani," the Boston Phoenix writes. “As a result, the new Romney is now de-emphasizing social issues like abortion, same-sex marriage, and illegal immigration … and he has scrupulously avoided association with the Tea Party movement.”

Is that the ticket for GOP success in 2012?

We'll have to wait and see. But 2012 is going to be a remarkable year for gay marriage in Presidential politics. For the first time ever, the first two primary states -- Iowa and New Hampshire -- will be states that recognize full civil rights for gay and lesbian couples. It's going to force all sides to take a position on the issue in some capacity, and justify that position before tens of thousands of voters.

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