Global Climate Talks Kick Off in Cancun, As Global Temperatures Approach Record

CANCUN, Mexico— It's a hot Monday in this beach resort city on the Gulf of Mexico. Over the next 12 days, it promises to only get hotter.

No, I'm not reporting to you on my early Spring Break. I'm representing Change.org here at the annual mess known formerly as the COP-16 or informally known as The Time of Year Again Global Warming Makes the News. Over the next 12 days, some 15,000 government delegates, environmentalists, journalists and experts are gathering here in an attempt to hammer out a global climate agreement, and test their will power to stay away from the beach and inside the conference center.

They do so against the backdrop of 2010 on track to potentially tie for the hottest-ever in 131 years of record-keeping.

Last year, the much-hyped talks in Copenhagen, Denmark (that one known in U.N. acronym-speak as "COP-15") were a disappointment to many. No deal between the U.S., China and 192 other nations on how to fairly take responsibility for reducing the world's ballooning greenhouse gas emissions. No concrete plan to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is far too weak and expires in 2012 anyway. Little comfort to small-island nations desperately seeking to prevent their own demise from rising sea levels, but powerless to act as anything other than a moral force. Those talks—salvaged at the end by the personal diplomacy of President Obama—did end in $100 billion in climate adaptation aid promised by rich nations, and 4-page vague document known as the "Copenhagen Accord"—but so far little more than promises have come out even this.

So what will this influx of visitors to Cancun accomplish?

This time around, expectations have been set exceedingly low from the outset—so low, in fact, that if the delegates don't get into a fist fight, the talks will be considered a success. And it's true, despite the intense security around the Moon Palace, the resort where negotiators are gathering, there is a low-key vibe in the city. The leaders of most major players in the debate are not expected to show up, as they did last year. Representing the U.S. throughout the talks, for example, will likely not be President Obama or even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Instead, it will be Todd Stern, the U.S. Special Envoy For Climate Change. No offense to him, but this is not exactly the star power we need if there is any hope of breaking through key deadlocks. Even the protests, despite the sunnier locale, will likely be more muted then last year.

But there is some home that concrete progress could be made as countries debate the so-called "architecture" of a future treaty. The idea is that instead of focusing on theoretical emissions reduction targets, countries instead are committing to practical actions—renewable energy deployment, rainforest conservation, better farming practices, technology financing—that will be the meat of any progress in meeting them.

Perhaps the TckTckTck climate campaign has it right, then. Their theory? Literally, they are offering a hope and a prayer.

Yesterday, organizers erected a massive "Pryamid of Hope" outside the Moon Palace, invoking the ancient Mayan gods so trusted by earlier inhabitants of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. And tomorrow, they have organized more than 5,000 parishioners of 75 churches and other faith groups to gather and pray for progress in a 4-hour ceremony.

Here's what Tcktcktck campaigner Paul Horsemen has to say:

There is a huge global movement of people demanding a low-carbon future and sending a clear signal that politicians have a mandate to take the bold steps needed to tackle climate change. Our pyramid represents the collective will of millions of people around the world who demand action. They are rolling up their sleeves and making a difference in their lives, and they want negotiators to show the same spirit and deliver the building blocks for success.

I'm looking forward to seeing what building blocks are in store for the next few days. Stay tuned for more dispatches, interviews and photos from the scene this week, follow the blog on twitter @changeEnviro and email me at environmenttips@change.org if you know of any interesting people I should meet while I'm here.

Photo credit: UNISDR photo gallery via Flickr

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