Global Pandemic As Systems Failure
On June 11th, the WHO raised swine flu to level six on their pandemic alert system. Almost 30,000 cases have been confirmed in 174 countries. It's now officially a pandemic. The more I read about it, the more I am struck: we did this to ourselves.
We failed in disease surveillance, both in animals when this new strain of H1N1 first began to emerge, and then when it crossed over to people. We could have picked this up in pigs over a year ago. Instead, we were blindsided.
We failed in promoting good health. The risk factors for H1N1 death are asthma, cardiovascular disease, obesity, and diabetes. If we were in better shape, the mortality on this influenza would be lower. These are all chronic diseases that better public health efforts could reduce.
We failed in environmental stewardship. Burning coal links directly to asthma and cardiovascular disease. If we were using clean power sources, we'd be less vulnerable to swine flu.
We failed in responsible agriculture. It's clear that H1N1 was able to evolve rapidly into this new strain because of confined animal feed lots, where pigs are housed close together and doused heavily with antibiotics. They are essentially incubators for new diseases.
We failed in preparation. We can't formulate a vaccine fast enough, and if we could, we don't have the production facilities to get it to everyone who needs it. As an added bonus, we might be contractually unable to. We don't even have enough Tamiflu, the drug that treats the infection, or even the ability to manufacture it.
We may yet dodge a bullet on swine flu. It may remain a mild-to-moderate form of the flu, with an "acceptable" mortality rate. If we do, it won't be the result of any competence from health authorities. It will be blind luck.
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