Hiring Potential Weak in Jobs Bill

Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich estimates we need about $400 billion over the next two years to fully implement an effective jobs program (via). I'm seeing estimates for Obama's proposal for $350B to far less. Let's unpack the proposed initiatives, and their impact on job creation and hiring, shall we?

The small business assistance is basically a renewal of tax credits and programs passed in the stimulus. I'm confused how helping small businesses borrow and reducing their tax burdens leads to hiring - and hiring into good jobs, at that. I've worked with a lot of small businesses over the years, and they're tremendously impressive in operating on shoestrings, personal credit, and the hard labor of family members and a small crew of employees. Given the current economy, how many small businesses are planning to expand? How many are going to transfer any tax savings into wage payments? Perhaps this saves existing jobs. Anyone know?

The "cash for caulkers" incentive program to promote weatherizing and making homes more energy efficient is a more intriguing, but to me, still murky proposal.

Cash for caulkers could potentially modernize 10M homes, which suggests substantial hiring of unemployed laborers to do the work. Questions here include whether the trades have kept up with the demand for workers skilled in retrofits; whether undertaking home remodeling will be as appealing as exchanging one car for another you can drive off the lot and be done with it ("cash for clunkers" is this program's inspiration); and whether homeowners and landlords will be willing to still front 50% of the upfront costs required to modernize their homes. There's hiring potential here, but home remodeling and the promise of future utility savings is a lot more of a commitment than trading in a car. Not to mention that this program will be aggressively promoted through places like Lowes and Home Depot, many of which offer a supply of day laborers to do the work for customers. Not exactly the hiring some anti-immigrant Americans will support.

Lastly, there's plans to continue filling state and local budget gaps, without which we could see 900k jobs lost in 2010. So again, we're looking at layoff prevention versus job creation. That's an admirable goal in itself; with 15M Americans out of work, preventing further additions to the dole is a worthwhile endeavor. And states and municipalities absolutely need to continue providing unemployment benefits for their jobless residents.

But why don't we just call this stimulus II and be done with it? There's some noteworthy efforts in this bill, but I fail to see how it's a creative and feisty employment program. Certainly, business leaders don't foresee widespread hiring in the coming months.

(Photo by extremeezine)