In Darfur, It's All About Access

Peace isn't coming to Darfur.  At least not anytime soon. 

As my co-blogger Michelle described, the Sudanese Government's current peace initiative has a number of flaws, including the fact that it doesn't seem to include the rebel groups themselves.

This can hardly come as a surprise, given the fact that the last few years are littered with failed peace negotiations, including the Darfur Peace Agreement in 2006 and the Sirte talks in 2007.

Albert Einstein once defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Which about sums up the process of making peace in Darfur, as long as a) the rebel groups remain divided, and b) the Sudanese Government doesn't feel threatened enough to compromise.

Having worked on (and occasionally in) Darfur from 2005 to 2007, it's hard to look at the current peace negotiations without a fair amount of cynicism.  That said, there is one aspect of Bashir's recent initiative that deserves special attention - his pledge to work with UNAMID to improve humanitarian access.

From a humanitarian perspective, the main issue in Darfur is how you try and keep 4.5 million conflict-affected people alive.  And it's hard to help those you can't reach.

According to the most recent UN Darfur Humanitarian Profile, there are three factors that determine humanitarian access: the degree of general insecurity, the continued harassment of humanitarian organizations and workers (including bureaucratic impediements imposted by the Sudanese Government), and targeted attacks on humanitarian staff.

Over the last year, attacks on humanitarian organizations have made access increasingly difficult.  From January through August 2008, 11 humanitarian staff were killed, and another 155 abducted (including WFP-contracted drivers). Over seventy-four humanitarian compounds have been attacked this year, and more than 208 humanitarian vehicles have been hijacked.

As recently as July, the UN reported that it could not access 30% of conflict-affected people in Darfur.  (For a graph showing the decline in humanitarian access from 2004 to the present, click here.)

For instance, aid agencies are now struggling to reach 40,000 people displaced by recent fighting in North Darfur.  According to one aid worker: "Nobody is able to reach the area.  The security situation is unstable so trying to reach them is very dangerous."

And it's not as though the other 70% are living in clover.  In April WFP cut food rations in half for its 2.4 million beneficiares, due to continuing attacks against food convoys.

Rations are still far below what they should be.  The most recent OCHA Darfur Bulletin (October 16th) reports that "WFP plans to gradually increase the ration size for Darfur beneficiaries will not materialise in October as hoped due to supply gaps in vegetable oil as well as continuing transport difficulties, caused by insecurity. This makes the total kilo-calorie provided 65% of the 2,100 kilo-calorie recommended."

There's more than enough blame to go around - it's not simply the janjaweed, but rebel factions as well; after all, banditry is equally attractive to all armed men.  When the WFP announced the reduction in food rations back in April, they specifically appealed to rebel groups to "ensure security on the roads and to respect the neutrality of all people involved in the humanitarian effort."

Which makes Bashir's pledge to work with UNAMID to improve humanitarian access so critical - or at least necessary, if not in and of itself sufficient.  Anything that can be done to remove bureaucratic impediments and help improve UNAMID's ability to provide security would be welcome, not least by the millions of people who rely on humanitarian assistance in order to survive.

Then again, believing that Bashir will carry through on any of his promises requires a certain triumph of hope over experience.

(For more analysis of the current peace negotiations, see this post from Opinio Juris.)