Is African Poverty Falling? Does the Question Matter?

A recent paper -- one arguing that African poverty is falling faster than previously thought -- is getting a fair bit of media attention these days. According to the authors, not only is poverty falling, but the decline across the continent is a remarkably broad-based one.

Naturally, this has stimulated something of a backlash. (After all, no question in development can be answered without dissent -- this is a profession of critics as much as of doers.) Most naysayers point out that the way in which the authors calculate poverty is flawed, along with their data, and that accordingly, their outlook is too positive.

The debate basically boils down to technical questions about poverty estimation and the best ways of measuring it. But there’s a deeper question here worth asking: to what extent should we think about poverty on a continent-wide basis in the first place?

When it comes to fighting poverty in Africa, the idea of 'African poverty’ isn't the most helpful metric out there. After all, Africa is a huge continent and spans incredibly diverse cultures and economies. The rate of growth in Egypt doesn't have any bearing on the economic patterns of Malawi, and neither is closely related to the oil-rich, morality-poor habits of the fast-growing Equatorial Guinea. Geographically, culturally, climatically and economically, these countries have more separating them than holding them together. Policy-wise, we know that they are very different places: for example, while oil forms the backbone of Equatorial Guinea's economy, Malawi is pursuing an aggressive agricultural subsidy program. The way we try to address economic development and poverty reduction in such countries will (or should), accordingly, be very different.

Yes, it's true that there are some powerful similarities in the problems many African nations face. But what matters is an approach that questions why some countries are doing well or badly, and seeks ways lessons can be applied more widely.

If we care about reducing the poverty of Africa, our focus shouldn't be on ‘Africa’ as a continent. We need to focus more on the national level. For the most part at the national level, we have decent information: household surveys tell us about the country’s progress, GDP can be analyzed over time. The data's far from perfect, but over time, we can build a story about a country and adapt policy as needed.

The strong temptation here is to construct a grand narrative where none exists. Most of the work of aid agencies and academics acknowledges that different economic and historical forces are at work in different countries. It’s time for popular perceptions of 'poverty' to catch up.

Photo credit: cbertel