Is the Iraq War Over?

During the U.S. presidential election in November 2008, I have to confess that I didn't vote for Obama. I had planned to, but actually had to go to Iraq for two months to review a countrywide peacebuilding program and, complication after another, I was unable to arrange a ballot for election day in Baghdad. But I think that's a pretty good excuse, wouldn't you say?

That night, fellow aid workers and I took a break from a very stressful collection of projects to watch the election coverage within a heavily-fortified contractor security compound. Our host made French toast. And by 5:00am when Obama gave his acceptance speech, we were teary-eyed imagining that this Iraq nightmare could be undone to some extent by a new American government. While other former supporters of Obama are highly disappointed, I'm not. Take a look at Iraq.

Amid this past weekend's parliamentary election in Iraq, the AP reports 36 were killed in targeted violence. Not to dismiss these tragedies, but the war is much different with a reduced U.S. presence. Unlike Afghanistan where there is a largely united insurgency fighting against a united central government, Iraq suffered at least ten different insurgencies, each with different crossing and contradicting goals, fighting a divided government. Turns out the government was most divided on whether to work independently or as dependents of the United States.

When the Obama Administration took a chance on the very option the McCain Campaign refused, reducing American patronism in the political sphere, the move toward a more even partnership, and a NATO withdrawal reduced more than half of the civil conflicts.

Most importantly, if you have a second to see the NY Times description of the Iraq political coalitions, you'll see that the most important coalition inside the government was largely anti-American and anti-NATO.

Changing the equation allowed the Iraq government to create that greater unity, which is a pre-requisite for taking on its own national security. The current Newsweek cover story discusses aspects of this vital move which has radically changed the political environment in Iraq for the better.

From the little I was able to see in Baghdad, Erbil, Suleymania, and so on last year, to the current situation I've discussed with Iraqi colleagues, it looks like a vast improvement.

Yet many peace activists and progressives are now unwilling to applaud Obama's moderate success on Iraq because they see its merit being negated by the escalation of the war in Afghanistan.

Listen, Iraq was a ten-sided war, and about six of those factions were pro-Baghdad and anti-Washington. In Afghanistan, it is an entirely different situation in which there is a united insurgency fighting a united government, which will go on whether we are there or not. This writer believes peace advocates should applaud Obama on the conduct of NATO withdrawal for Iraq, and not be too quick to condemn the Obama escalation in Afghanistan. War is not only about troop levels.

Now is the Iraq War over? For the U.S., it is as much over as it can be. Right now the Iraqi government has the momentum to secure most of the country on its own.

However, beware that violence will continue. In the current world, Islamic radical leaders are so fundamentally opposed to unity government that there will rarely be peace agreements with the most extreme elements of their forces. So it goes in Iraq, like in Afghanistan, Yemen, and on and on. There will likely be a pocket insurgency for a long time. But at least now the Iraqi government -- looking less like a puppet faction -- is largely able to contain it on its own.

Photo credit: Daniel J Gerstle (The former Baath Party parade ground in Baghdad)