Islands Sink, but the Question of Sovereignty Remains

If an island nation sinks beneath the sea, does it still exist as a sovereign state?  Maybe, according to a recent study. That's the good news. The bad news is nothing is guaranteed and time is running out as seawater pours in.

It doesn't take much of a rise for seawater to leech into island nations' groundwater, tainting freshwater supplies and killing crops, and making a former homeland uninhabitable.  Already, dozens of island residents have been forced to evacuate. Countries such as the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands (home to over 400,00 people combined) will most likely have to relocate all of their citizens within the lifetime of their youngest citizens, and their homelands may be completely obliterated.

But what happens next is a mystery. This is because when it comes to international law, sinking nations is novel territory. For instance, there is no clear answer whether an uninhabitable piece of a formerly habitable island counts as territory or just a rock. The distinction means the difference between having access to hundreds of miles of marine resources, or having nothing at all.

And it can also mean the difference between formal Statehood or something else.  Under the Montevideo Convention, a State requires some territory. But there are instances of sovereign entities without territory, such as the DaVinci Code-esque Sovereign Military Order of St. John of Jerusalem, of Rhodes, and of Malta. Or, there's the possibility of government-in-exile status, which could be based on the assumption that eventually (over centuries or millennia) an island will re-emerge, requiring a continued governing body to secure the rights of descendants to re-inhabit the land. Or perhaps both conditions could be applied.

There is also the question about what happens if Island States build structures, like lighthouses, that reach above the water line. (If so, I cringe at the thought of a modern day gold rush of countries planting giant towers on sea mounts to claim new land ... )

For citizens of island nations, the ultimate consequence of rising seas is not so different than from war or foreign occupation: It threatens national security and basic human rights. But for governments, climate change is like nothing ever encountered before: Cap-and-trade may seem complicated, but it's a legal cakewalk compared with figuring out how to categorize new Atlantises.

Perhaps rich, big carbon-emitting nations — those guilty of causing the problem and stalling its solution — are hoping out of sight will mean out of mind. But organizations like Islands First are working hard to make sure this doesn't happen. There is opportunity in the legal ambiguity, and we have an obligation to try and create the most just resolution to this most unjust of circumstances. Any generous lawyers or international policy experts out there want to pitch in?

Photo credit: LuxTonnerre