Kashmir Shoot-Out Reminds How War Can Spread

Two or three men from the Jamait-ul-Mujahideen Islamist militant group blasted their way into a hotel and began attacking police in the city of Srinigar in Indian Kashmir on Wednesday.

Police evacuated hundreds of people as the battle flared. The event is not unique to Kashmir, but is the first time violence hit Srinigar in a year. And it is a warning sign that locals and global responders must consider. What are the links between Islamic militants fighting for the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan's northwest, and Islamic militants fighting for Kashmir to be part of Pakistan?

Many questions have bloomed along this front which arguably is the fuse that could bring India deeper into the terror war. But public investigation has found few answers.

If the Taliban Islamic militants fighting for Afghanistan and northwest Pakistan have indeed linked to Islamic militants fighting for Kashmir to be part of Pakistan -- which is very likely, but complicated -- the combined forces may have intentionally reduced attacks in Kashmir this past year in order to concentrate forces in Pakistan.

But then why increase those attacks now? Apparently, insurgents are attacking Pakistani forces inside Pakistani-controlled Kashmir as well as Indian forces inside Kashmir-proper.

In this case, there are two potential paths. One is that the Taliban is concentrating its forces against the Pakistani government and the Jamait-ul-Mujahideen attack is a splinter group. The other is that the Taliban may choose, like many insurgent groups have done, to spread Pakistani forces out so they are more vulnerable. Pakistan does not want militants to trigger a new war with India in these times, so they now have to spread out their surveillance and border security to prevent this.

While Pakistan officially does claim Kashmir and allegedly turns a blind eye to militants crossing into Kashmir, it does not want to see the two conflicts merge.

Photo: Kashmir, TwoCentsWorth