Missing Pieces Put New Middle East Peace Talks at Risk

The most widely-used word to describe the Middle East peace talks that restart today after a twenty-month lapse is "long-shot." That's decidedly better than no-shot, unless you don't want peace between Israelis and Palestinians in the first place. But without three key missing pieces of the peace talks in place, any shot may be off target.

The year-long timeframe for results is generously short given the century of deadly problems that need to be worked out, exacerbated by violence the talks themselves have spurred. With the quick mini-victory of the agreement for negotiators to meet again in Egypt in hand, as much for practical as for public relations purposes, what's not even in sight may put the whole peace process in jeopardy if it is not brought into action soon.

Two key organizations and one key country without which the Middle East peace (and war) process would not be where it is and is going, wherever that is, are being overlooked all too conveniently and at great peril to peace  both at the negotiating table and by the global mainstream media. The danger of these missing pieces in the puzzle of the Middle East peace process is that without them it is unlikely to ever be complete, and even if it is could bring about its rapid annulment. So as we watch the peace talks progress, regress and progress again in the coming weeks and months, keep the following in mind.

The first missing piece, actually a composite of missing pieces, are the three other members of the so-called Middle East Quartet other than the U.S.: the European Union, Russia and the United Nations. The awaited invitation to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas was signed in the name of all four, but none is directly involved in the peace talks other than the host country. Their collective absence is even more conspicuous than their individual.

The U.N. is by its Charter supposed to be the world's forum for working out peace deals like this. The fact that the talks are taking place in Washington instead of U.N. headquarters or offices is indicative of the decline of the institution, and with it the global validation of peace deals only the U.N. could once affirm. With Russia's mutually celebrated ties with Iran in mind (the key missing country, on which more in a moment), their not being there is like a wedding without a bride. As for the European Union, their member countries have been so closely involved with the situation as colonial powers in the region in the recent past that their present absence creates the atmosphere of a funeral without a corpse.

The second missing piece (another composite) is without doubt the most astonishing to be considered missing, because it has for decades been one of the main drivers of war in the region, not peace. That's the Arab League, now composed of twenty-two member states in the Middle East and Africa as well as four global observer states, including India. The Arab League was originally formed as a military organization of six states to wipe Israel off the map, which is why their explicit support for these peace talks comes as such a welcome surprise.

Egypt's membership in the Arab League was suspended when it made a separate peace deal with Israel in the late 1970s, so you can just imagine how momentous it is that they back these peace talks. Given that both the political and logistic support of Arab League states is a de facto precondition for peace between Israel and Palestine to be successful, that they are absent from the peace talks is like a feast with no food, especially strange because they are, remarkably, hungry for peace.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the key country not directly involved — indeed, far removed — from the peace talks is Iran. In his opening words at the negotiating table, Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu said "We want to ensure that territory we concede will not be turned into a third Iranian-sponsored terror enclave aimed at the heart of Israel," after Lebanon and Gaza. If Iranian support for terrorists is as much a threat to Israel in this way as homegrown Palestinian terrorists, why aren't they at the negotiations too? Had President Obama delivered on his campaign promise to open direct talks with Tehran, this may not have been the case, making Iran's absence like Halloween without monsters.

Can and should the peace talks go without these missing pieces? Yes. Are the peace talks more likely to be successful before and after an agreement is signed if their absence, both actual and imaginary, becomes an active presence, both in the foreground and background? Yes. Is this likely to happen? No.

Photo credit: Horia Varland