New Polls Show Increasing Support for Marriage Equality, Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Did you hear the one about the statistician?

Probably.

New polls have found that support for marriage equality and for repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy is on the rise. And while we should always take polling results with a touch of sodium chloride, these latest ones, from the respected Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, show some encouraging trends.

Researchers at Pew have found, based on interviews with more than 6,000 adults in the past few months, that 42 percent favor marriage equality while 48 percent are opposed -- up from 37 percent in favor and 54 percent opposed in 2009. This is the first time in 15 years of Pew Research Center polling that fewer than half oppose marriage equality.

Not only that, reports Pew, but the shift has occurred across many demographic, political and religious groups. For the first time in Pew survey history, pluralities of white mainline Protestants and Catholics now favor marriage equality.

There remains a large difference in opinion on marriage equality among different age groups. Fifty-three percent of those born after 1980 favor it, with 39 percent opposed. The percent in favor drops among Gen Xers (born 1965 to 1980) and Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964), although the number has crept up in recent years. Those born 1928 to 1945 are still largely opposed (59 percent), with only 29 percent in favor, although this is up from 23 percent in favor in 2009 and 17 percent in 2003.

Not surprisingly, 53 percent of Democrats favor marriage equality, with 38 percent opposed -- compared to 24 percent in favor and 69 percent opposed among Republicans.

Independents and other non-partisans are almost evenly divided, with 44 percent in favor and 43 percent opposed. Still, this is up from 37 percent in favor and 51 percent opposed in 2009. Pew notes, "Throughout the past decade, opinion among independents has tracked more closely with Democrats than Republicans on this issue." That seems a good thing.

There are racial differences in opinion as well. Forty-four percent of non-Hispanic whites favor marriage equality, with 46 percent opposed. Hispanics are similar, with 41 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed. Among non-Hispanic blacks, however, 30 percent are in favor, with 59 percent opposed.

Looking at gender, women even show a slight majority (46 percent) in favor of equality, with 45 percent opposed. Among men, 38 percent are in favor, with 38 percent opposed.

A majority of college graduates (52 percent) are also in favor, although support is also increasing among non-graduates.

Support is increasing, too, among white mainline Protestants and Catholics, although "virtually all of the change in opinion among both groups has come among those who attend services relatively infrequently." White mainline Protestants are 49 percent in favor and 38 percent opposed. Catholics are similar with 49 percent in favor and 41 percent opposed.

But -- oy, gay! -- a whopping 76 percent of Jews are in favor of marriage equality, even more than the 62 percent of the religiously unaffiliated. (Although that still leaves room for opposition; see this piece by Change.org's Mike Jones.)

When it comes to allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military, 60 percent of all those surveyed are in favor of it, with 30 percent opposed, a number that hasn't changed much in the past five years. Democrats, women, whites, younger people and college graduates are more likely to support it.

Republicans are more likely to support DADT repeal than marriage equality. Forty-seven percent say they would allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military, with 43 percent opposed.

Interestingly, Pew also found that "same-sex marriage ranks at the bottom of the list of issues in this year’s congressional elections. Not surprisingly, far more voters are saying the economy and jobs will be very important to their vote this year."

As I've said before, the more we can frame LGBT rights in terms of economic benefits (for all, not just for LGBT people), the greater chance we'll have of making progress in the current economic climate.

Photo credit: kevinzhengli