No Second Wave of Swine Flu?

by Alanna Shaikh · 2009-08-13 08:40:00 UTC
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(photo credit: Rache..)

We've got some possible good news on Swine Flu, for once. Everyone - including me - was braced for a second wave of swine flu this fall. A second, more destructive pandemic wave. That's just how flu pandemics go -everyone knows that. But the odds of that more deadly second wave seem to be decreasing.

First of all, a survey of 60 leading flu experts indicated that the majority of flu specialists no longer think that a more virulent form of swine flu is on the way. They still see a second wave coming, but they don't think it's going to be more virulent. The article about the survey doesn't indicate who the flu experts were, or why they have changed their minds, which I find frustrating. Knowing their credentials and why they think it's not going to get worse would help us know how credible that assessment is.

But there's more. In addition to the undescribed survey of anonymous flu experts, we also have research from two virologists - virologists with names, even - who looked at the 14 flu pandemics that took place in the last 500 years. And there's no deadlier second wave. They found no evidence of "wave behavior" in pandemic influenza. Instead, pandemic flus just evolve into ordinary, seasonal flu.

That doesn't mean we're off the hook. Influenza mutates into more serious forms. That's how we got swine flu in the first place. There's no guarantee that this flu won't mutate too. But we don't have to assume that it's coming any more.

Alanna Shaikh
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