NOAA: Greenhouse Gases Climb Despite Economic Slowdown

by Emily Gertz · 2009-04-23 13:23:00 UTC
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Economies may fall, banks may crumble, real estate bubbles may implode.  But apparently the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s, all by itself, isn't slowing down the progress of human-propelled global warming.

This week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that compared to 2007, greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere were higher at the end of December 2008, even though the global economic crisis was well underway and had led to a slowdown in manufacturing.

Researchers measured an additional 16.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) and 12.2 million tons of methane in the atmosphere.  "Viewed another way," according to NOAA,

for every million molecules of air, another 2.1 molecules of carbon dioxide entered the atmosphere last year and stayed there — slightly less than the 2.2 parts per million (ppm) increase in 2007. Total global concentrations topped 386 ppm, compared to 280 ppm before the industrial revolution began in the 1800s.

Some climate scientists, including NASA's James Hansen, believe we must reduce and stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350 ppm by 2050 to avert the worst consequences of global warming (such as, at the most dire end, an ice-free planet) and continue the downward trend after that.

The CO2 and methane upticks were slightly lower than those recorded at the end of 2007, perhaps reflecting the economic recession.  But they were "well within the range of yearly fluctuations from natural changes," according to the agency -- meaning that human activities caused the net increase:

The rise in CO2 levels varies from year to year along with plant growth and decay, wildfire activity, and changes in soil conditions. Emerging from that natural variability is a consistent upward trend produced by burning coal, oil, and gas for transportation and industry.

Image: NOAA-produced chart comparing "Anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, fossil fuel emissions, world gross domestic product (GDP), and world population for the past century. Carbon dioxide data from Antarctic ice cores (green points), Mauna Loa Observatory (red curve), and the global network (blue dots)."

Emily Gertz
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