One Last Chance for Credible Elections in Sudan
This is a guest-post from Alex Meixner, Senior Advisor to the Save Darfur Coalition.
During a recent press conference, as reported in the Sudan Tribune, U.S. Special Envoy Scott Gration stated that he was “pleased to see that Sudan is entering into the registration period that things are proceeding,” and that he was looking “forward to a good election in April.” While optimism is a rare commodity in Sudanese politics and one to be valued, and with the caveat that the press conference excerpts may have been followed by a litany of unquoted qualifiers, General Gration’s focus on the bright side of an increasingly dark election process avoids some hard but critical truths.
No doubt, there is a fine line to walk when talking about the Sudanese national elections required by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and now scheduled for April 11, 2010. On one hand, a peaceful and credible democratic transformation of Sudan is easily the best alternative to the genocidal and dictatorial status quo, and so should be encouraged. On the other hand, there comes a point when the likelihood of a peaceful and credible election is so diminished as to become laughable. The electoral situation in Sudan is not quite to that point of no legitimacy and no return yet, but it is getting perilously close.
How bad is it, you ask? The ruling National Congress Party continues to refuse to remove tyrannical laws forbidding the most basic forms of political activity, including the rights of opposition candidates to campaign publicly, the rights of the press to cover the elections objectively, and the rights of Sudanese citizens to freely assemble to demonstrate their support for opposition candidates or even to hear what they have to say.
Pretty bad, you must admit. But the truly devious electioneering moves by the NCP come in the form of a seemingly innocuous calendar. Setting absurdly short duration limits on voter registration all but guarantees a low turnout. Worse, a short voter registration timeline enormously favors northern urban centers and other pro-Bashir areas where the NCP has seen fit to spend money preparing for the logistical challenge of the first national election in over 20 years. We have also heard reports that in some areas near Khartoum the NCP conducted early registration efforts. So as you may have guessed, the system is being rigged to make it harder for millions of rural or displaced would-be voters in Darfur (who are somewhat unlikely to vote for the man who has been orchestrating a genocide against them) to participate. Add rampant insecurity and well-founded fear for their safety to the logistical difficulties facing millions of Darfuris and you’ve got the perfect recipe for a massive fraud masquerading as an election.
And here’s the rub: an electoral masquerade is in fact the ultimate goal of President Bashir and the NCP. Bashir has not held onto power for 20+ years by taking unnecessary risks, and that’s just what a credible and legitimate election would be from Bashir’s perspective – an unnecessary risk. Bashir is much better off manufacturing an illusion of a credible election and then tasking his formidable diplomatic and public relations team with spinning the unsurprising results in his favor within the halls of power and public opinion abroad. Bashir doesn’t expect his charade to win over skeptical western governments, media, or public opinion, but he doesn’t need to win them over. He needs his elections charade to give political cover to his semi-reluctant allies in China, the African Union, and the Arab League who would like to support Bashir’s continued hold on power, but who are wary of public and international opinion that has been trending increasingly against him.
When the post-election dust settles, the west may scream bloody murder about fraudulent elections, but will be blocked from initiating any meaningful multilateral consequences by Bashir’s allies, who will claim the elections credible because it is expedient and just reasonable enough to do so. Bashir will have regained enough tarnished legitimacy to continue his rule without additional consequence from the allied states that have the power (but not the inclination) to compel real reform in Sudan, and the western world will be forced to admit it was once again suckered by a consummate political survivor. A grim scenario, but an unfortunately likely one.
Alternatively, General Gration and other international powers could heed and publicize the warnings of logic and Sudanese history that the conditions for a free and fair election are not close to being possible. These warnings have been echoed by the Carter Center, which recently complained about the deeply flawed voter registration process. U.S. outrage after fraudulent elections in Sudan has almost certainly been factored into Pres. Bashir’s plans and is unlikely to derail them. A real U.S.-led international effort to spotlight election fraud as it happens, on the other hand, could help compel real concessions to democracy and give these elections a fighting chance at credible legitimacy. More important, strong U.S. leadership could give everyone’s favorite option to change Sudan’s genocidal and dictatorial status quo one last chance at success.
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