Predictions for the New Year

by Michael Bear · 2008-12-31 16:31:00 UTC
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And, finally, a few last-minute predictions for the New Year:

1. The Toyota Hilux will continue to be the favored vehicle of militias the third world-over.

2. Congo will continue to set the pace when it comes to warlord fashions, thanks in no small part to General Laurent Nkunda and his silver eagle-topped cane.

3. Neither the Taliban in Afghanistan nor the Shabab in Somalia will do much to promote gender equality. Unless, of course, your idea of gender equality involves burning girls' schools.

4. And, speaking of conflicts, aid agencies will continue to refer to crises in the most apocalyptic terms possible.

5. I, too, will proudly do my part.

6. At the same time, most aid workers will continue to be sent to places like Afghanistan, Congo, Darfur and Somalia without adequate security training.  Many without any security training at all.  (And now gracefully stepping down from that particular soap-box.)

7. The number of reports, analysis, evaluations, lessons-learned and recommendations about the cluster approach, the Humanitarian Coordinator system, CAP, CERF, CHF, DCPSF, DDR, DRCPF, LRF, MDTFs, PRTs, R2P, SRS-FF, etc etc. will only increase.  Because, after all, consultants need to eat, too.

8. There will be more devastating storms next year than last.  Which will include massive flooding in the Caribbean, or perhaps Bangladesh.  Then again, predicting flooding in Bangladesh is a bit like predicting the sun rising in the east.

9. And droughts, more droughts.  So, probably not the best of times to buy real estate in the Sahel.

10. The meek will not inherit the earth, at least not anytime soon, or at least not in Afghanistan or Zimbabwe, Somalia or Sudan.  Which means that humanitarian relief will continue to be very much a growth industry.

And through it all, aid workers will continue to live and work in the worst places in the world, often for little pay, doing what they can for those most in need.

A very happy New Year to all.

PS - as Mr. Easterbrook says, all predictions wrong or your money back.

[Image from www.chrisrue.com]

Michael Bear
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