Predictions of Three Coming Humanitarian Crises

The NFL starts in just over a week, and to say I'm excited might be something of an understatement.  At least judging by the number of preseason prediction articles that I've consumed of late.

Some people might argue that this is not, in fact, the most productive way to spend one's time.  I respectfully disagree.

Inspired by my recent reading, I've begun to wonder why we don't make preseason predictions in other walks of life.  Like predicting humanitarian crises.  I know, I know, there's the failed state index, and other attempts to quantify just how depressing certain countries have become.  But such attempts tend to be descriptive of what is, as opposed to what will be.  I want more.

Guessing Afghanistan or Darfur or Somalia is too easy - like trying to wager on a horse race that's already been run.

So, in the spirit of feckless prognosticators everywhere, my prediction of three coming humanitarian crises:

1. Kenya

The stable bastion of east Africa.  Except, well, for those rather brutal post-election riots in early 2008, the scars of which are still not completely healed.   The Kenyan economy is forecasted to shrink next year, the first time the economy has contracted in almost a decade.  Corruption is, if anything, growing worse, while the price of basic commodities is increasing - for instance, the cost of maize has doubled over the past year.

And, finally, we're looking at a full-blown food crisis in the coming months, as drought and spiraling prices have left 3.8 million Kenyans dependent on food assistance.  (For a map of the drought early warning stages in Kenya, see here.)

An ineffective coalition government. A shrinking economy. Rising food prices. A recent history of violence. Not good, not good at all.

2. South Sudan

One could certainly argue that South Sudan is already in crisis, and has been for decades.  However, misery in the south has been overshadowed by the situation in Darfur for the past five years.  This might soon change.

While the violence in Darfur has seemingly stabilized, inter-tribal fighting in South Sudan grows worse and worse - just a few weeks ago, at least 185 people were killed in a fresh outbreak of fighting. Even this, however, pales in comparison to the inter-tribal clashes which killed more than 1,000 people in March and April. By way of comparison, 143 people were killed in Darfur over the same two-month period.

And, as with Kenya, South Sudan is also facing a "massive food shortage".  Much of the analysis around South Sudan focuses on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement with the north, and the fear that the north and south would relapse into war before the 2011 referendum on whether South Sudan will become an independent state.

Yet what happens if the war never comes, and instead South Sudan slowly implodes?

3. Chad

Again, perhaps not the most adventuresome of choices.  After all, few people would regard Chad as a particularly pleasant place.

Yet if President Idriss Deby is removed from office (i.e. overthrown) - always a distinct possibility - there's a good chance of some rather ugly tribal score-settling, targeted against Deby's Zaghawa supporters.  Which, in turn, would only further complicate the conflict in Darfur, given the tribal affiliations amongst various Darfur rebel groups.

For more information on Chad, see these reports by the Enough Project, and these by International Crisis Group.

[Image of post-election violence in Kenya from usumdelphini89 via Flickr]