Probably Time to Start Worrying About Natural Disasters*

by Michael Bear · 2009-10-05 13:02:00 UTC
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*Especially if you live in a low-lying coastal area. Or a developing nation. Or both.

Any week in which a tsunami is only the fourth deadliest natural disaster should probably serve as a bit of a warning sign.  Unfortunately, all the excitement of the past few days -- earthquakes, typhoons, floods, a tsunami, and a massive drought -- isn't that much of a surprise. Granted, it was a surprise to those involved, but the overall number of natural disasters has been steadily increasing for decades.

According to one UN estimate, the number of natural disasters has doubled over the past two decades, from roughly 200 to 400 natural disasters per year.

The blog Good Intentions Are Not Enough points to three causes for the dramatic increase in the number and humanitarian impact of such disasters: environmental degradation, population growth and climate change.

Last year, a total of 36 million people were displaced by sudden onset natural disasters, twenty million of whom were affected by natural disasters related to climate change, such as droughts, hurricanes and floods. (Earthquakes accounted for much of the balance.)

The World Bank helpfully estimates the cost of mitigation alone as high as $400 billion per year for twenty years. And that's just in the developing world.

Now, you ask, how much is actually available? The fine folks at IRIN calculate that there's currently a total of $23.249 billion available for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the developing world, adding together all existing financing mechanisms and funding.

So, ummm, perhaps not the best of times to invest in that time-share in Bangladesh.

For more information see this resource page on the humanitarian impact of climate change.

[Photo of a landslide triggered by a tropical storm in the Philippines from susancorpuz90's photostream on flickr - Creative Commons, Attribution]

Michael Bear
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