Reality Check: Island Nations Drowning, Despite Academic Debate

Over the past decade, scientists have predicted that global warming will contribute to sea level rise in the South Pacific, spelling disaster for tiny island nations like Tuvalu and the Federated States of Micronesia.

Could the "rather gloomy" fate of these nations have been exaggerated? The authors of a new study published last week in the journal Global and Planetary Change think so.  In fact, their report says, these countries might actually be growing in size, thanks to increases in coral debris and other sediment deposits.

"We have now got the evidence to suggest that the physical foundation of these countries will still be there in 100 years, so they perhaps do not need to flee their country," wrote Paul Kench, a researcher at New Zealand's Auckland University.

Their finding of course drew the reaction of a bevy of experts who see all evidence pointing towards a trend of increasingly irreversible sea level rise that would force these nations to relocate to higher land.

Soon, Solomon Islands Ambassador Colin Beck, who recently took part in the climate talks in Bonn, Germany, shot back that the study only takes a short-term view, and ignores the long-term implications of climate change.

"Sea levels are obviously rising -- I think in the short term [the study] suggests that there's maybe more time to do something about the problem than we'd first anticipated" added climate scientist Barry Brook. "But the problem is that sea level rise is likely to accelerate much beyond what we've seen in the 20th century."

In real life, Tuvalu and Micronesia residents are seeing first hand that their countries are drowning. A recent Mother Jones investigation found that a fifth of Tuvalu's citizens has already fled to surrounding countries like New Zealand, fearing that they would lose their homes and have no place to go.

These academic debates have real consequences. Claiming that the islands aren't, in fact, being hurt by rising sea levels could give the international community an excuse to turn a blind eye. When former National Intelligence Council Thomas Fingar told U.S. congressional committees about the dire situation in the South Pacific, for example, his argument was "overshadowed by a debate over whether this topic was incredibly important or incredibly stupid."

For its part, Micronesia has gone on the offensive. It has sued one of the Czech Republic's biggest polluters for damages caused by climate change. By refusing to clean up its act, Micronesia says that the power station is contributing to an existential threat to the island nation's physical presence. Micronesia's case "is the first situation I'm aware of where sea level rise has led to threats to food and water security," said Professor Charles Fletcher of the University of Hawaii.

It would be a major relief if Tuvalu and Micronesia are indeed growing rather than shrinking. But until the a scientific consensus backs that hypothesis as a long-term reality, the international community should view the South Pacific as the first tangible front in the war against climate change, rather than cross its fingers for good luck.

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