Reaping What We Sow in Darfur

The last week has seen some of the heaviest fighting in Darfur in almost a year.  The Sudanese military recently captured the formerly rebel-held town of Muhajariya, and has also been bombing other towns and villages.

Though it's always a dangerous game to try and guess motives - especially when it comes to the Sudanese Government - the timing of these recent attacks is hardly random.

According to John Norris, the Executive Director of the Enough Project:

"It's clear that the Sudanese government right now is testing the fence, as it were. Obviously, President Bashir is increasingly concerned by what looks very likely like it will be an arrest warrant handed down by the International Criminal Court (ICC), probably as soon as this month. And I think that they are hoping to escalate pressure, not only on the United States, but on the international community, to strengthen their hand and make the at least theoretical case that perhaps, an arrest warrant should be deferred."

It's not as though the Sudanese reaction is much of a surprise.  This isn't, after all, a regime noted for its subtlety.

Maybe, in the balance of things, the ICC process is still worthwhile,  Maybe justice is more important than the immediate fate of 20,000 people huddled around the UN base in Muhajariya.  Maybe the Sudanese military won't press the attack, maybe things will return to the status quo.

Or maybe not.

The least we can do is admit that our actions - our advocacy - have very real consequences.  Sometimes for the better, and sometimes for the worse.

My genocide co-blogger Michelle and I debated this point a few months back.  As I wrote then, arguing that the ICC indictment should be suspended:

"Yet just because the Sudanese Government hasn't yet moved against the camps (which they see as supporting the rebels) doesn't mean that they'll continue to show the same restraint, especially if they feel that they have nothing to lose.

I don't like the Sudanese Government, and I certainly hope there's space in one of the lower circles of hell reserved for Mr. Bashir. But it's easy to argue for justice when you're thousands of miles away.  The human rights community advocates for how things should be.  The humanitarian community has a somewhat different task - trying to keep people alive today, this week, this month.

The status quo is horrific.  But sometimes the alternatives are even worse."

Granted, Muhajariya isn't a camp, but the results are the same - tens of thousands of civilians left to the tender mercies of the Sudanese military.

As we decry the recent violence, let's not forget that we, too, bear some responsibility.

[Photo of Mujahariya taken in 2007 by AFP / Getty]