Recession = Gloomy Homelessness Projections

The National Alliance to End Homelessness released a report today stating that homelessness in America has decreased 10 percent.

Eh, between 2005 and 2007, that is.

Today, the outlook doesn't look so good. With a bona fide recession on our hands, shelters from Boston to Denver are reporting 20-30 percent increases in homelessness in just the past year. In fact, many communities that had experienced significant decreases in homelessness (according to the report) find themselves struggling to keep up with thousands of people who are new to the streets.

While the timing of this report may seem odd, it proves that strategies exist that have been effective in reducing homelessness in communities across the country in a healthy economy. And particularly among certain subpopulations, such as families and chronically homeless individuals. Here are some of the most compelling findings:

• The largest national decreases in homelessness were among unsheltered persons in families (30%) and chronically homeless adults (28%). Decreases were also reported in total (10%), overall family (18%), unsheltered (13%) and sheltered (4%) homelessness.
• Homeless persons in families, in 2007, represent 37% of the homeless population (down from 41% in 2005); chronically homeless persons represent 18% of the homeless population (down from 23% in 2005); the unsheltered homeless make up 42% of the homeless population (down from 44% in 2005).
• The focus in local Ten Year Plans to End Homelessness on chronic and family homelessness and increases in supportive housing targeted to chronically homeless individuals suggest that targeted local efforts account for the large decreases in family and chronic homelessness.

But oh, what a difference just two years can make.

Simply put: recessions mean more homelessness. NAEH estimates that, based on estimates of the depth likely to be reached by the current recession, 1.5 million additional Americans are likely to experience homelessness over the next two years (that's in addition to the number who usually become homeless in a given year). The effects of such a dramatic influx, says the NAEH, would be devastating:

This means more trauma for children and adults, more dislocation from schools and communities, and more expenses for local shelter systems. It means more people disconnected from the mainstream of America.

Of course, homelessness is never inevitable.

Beyond prevention strategies to keep homelessness from ever occurring, we must continue supporting rental subsidy programs such as Section 8 while continuing to invest in and produce affordable housing.

Given the budget shortages that states and municipalities are already feeling, the support needed to curb the rising tide of homelessness will probably have to come from the feds. But are they up to task?