Runners Up (Or Notable Absences?) In The Top Trends Shaping SE 2010 List

I've just concluded the "Top Trends Shaping Social Entrepreneurship in 2010" list. I spent a lot of time thinking about what I thought were going to be the biggest movements and shift in our field next year, but that doesn't mean I got it right. In fact, I even had a couple that barely didn't make the cut.

Conspicuously Absent #1: Government and Social Entrepreneurship

Last year's #1 prediction didn't even make the list this year. What gives? Call me a skeptic, but my attitude about this administration's capacity to do much with social innovation is one of "doubtful, but I hope I'm wrong." It's great that the full $50 million came through for the social innovation fund, and I'm really glad they have external leaders like Andrew Wolk advising them, but how they actually spend that money is a big question, and I haven't seen compelling evidence of a strong clear vision. Vaguely, the idea is investing in what works and being a pipeline for other departments to integrate innovation from outside government into government. That's a pretty hard task. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think this is going to do much.

All that said, I have more faith in local governments, which is why I was so excited to name the development of regional innovation ecosystems the #2 trend. They are the reason that it was harder to remove Government and Social Entrepreneurship entirely from the list.

Honorable Mention #2: Bad Year for the Microfinance Brand

One of the notable characteristics of the second half of 2009 was that the more critical, skeptical voice that has always followed the field has come more into the surface. I think that 2010 will be see the most public criticism of microfinance since Muhammad Yunus won the Nobel Prize. There is at least one book - if not critical then extremely skeptical in an academic sense - being worked on in a public fashion, microfinance's leading brand in the public eye Kiva is regrouping after an earlier controversy, and you see more articles like this piece in the Wall Street Journal about how the rise of microfinance has also enabled a rise in loan sharking. I think part of this is the normal "fall back to earth" process that any phenomena has to go through, and I think there will be a recovery, but it will be interesting to watch.

Honorable Mention #3: The Micro-ization of Everything Else

Small is the new big. From the donor side of things, I think there will be an ever growing number of opportunities for embedded giving of time and money, whether its microvolunteerism or buying a charity farm animal in a Facebook game. On the nonprofit side, we're seeing more opportunities like education loans (Vittana) and micro-franchise work (Ayllu) that could have a pretty big impact on how we think about addressing social issues in the year to come.

(Photo: Chad Davis)