Same-Sex Marriage is Still Inevitable

With defeats in California, Maine and New York, some journalists and pundits are starting to wonder whether marriage equality is really the next advancement in civil rights.

Ben Smith at Politico has a piece up that looks at whether same-sex marriage is inevitable. Focusing on California, Maine and New York, Smith writes that the marriage equality movement has certainly seen its fair share of roadblocks.

"The same-sex marriage movement appears likely to end a banner year with a string of stinging defeats that opponents say have undermined a core proposition of the movement -- that the acceptance of gay marriage is, sooner or later, inevitable," writes Smith.

Smith is right that the defeats have been stinging. But while opponents might like to trumpet these marriage equality losses as a sign that same-sex marriage isn't written in the stars, they're foolish to do so. Here's why.

For starters, while losing California, Maine and New York was painful, 2009 is still the year of gay marriage. In the past thirteen months, four states have moved forward with recognizing same-sex marriage: Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Adding Massachusetts to the mix, which started recognizing same-sex marriages in 2004, that means that ten percent of the entire country now has marriage equality laws on the books. How can that be seen by anyone as anything short of marriage equality momentum?

Second, opponents of same-sex marriage like to bellow the fact that 31 states have voted on same-sex marriage at the ballot box, and all 31 states have rejected it. Factually, that's right. But strategically, that's a pretty ignorant analysis. Why?

As Adam Bink writes at Open Left, the vast majority of these 31 losses were one-sided fights. Meaning that as a huge chunk of states debated constitutional amendments banning gay marriage -- from South Carolina to Nebraska -- LGBT activists didin't put up a fight or didn't choose to execute a strategy. But in the states where we did organize -- Maine and California, most notably -- we came within three of four percentage points of preserving equal rights. That's not a victory, but it certainly shows we're fighting like hell, and we won't be losing for long.

Third, opponents of gay marriage continue to put up straw men as arguments. Their latest? Maggie Gallagher's (of National Organization for Marriage fame) argument that because straight, heterosexual, traditionalist couples have more children, they'll be raising an army of same-sex marriage opponents. If that's the long-term strategy for groups like the National Organization for Marriage, here's hoping that a cadre of donors just closed their checkbooks in outrage.

The fact is that young people support marriage equality overwhelmingly -- including the children of same-sex marriage opponents. As Ben Smith at Politico points out, nearly 60 percent of people under 30 support same-sex marriage. And that number continues to go up each year. From Meghan McCain to Miley Cyrus, you don't have to look hard to find children of prominent Republicans supporting same-sex marriage.

Even Republican pollsters agree that the Maggie Gallaghers of this world are on the losing end of the marriage equality spectrum. "It's only a matter of time," one GOP pollster told Ben Smith anonymously (how sad that a statement like that has to remain anonymous!  Doesn't that say a lot abou the state of affairs within the GOP...).

Losing marriage equality battles sure sucks. But keep it in perspective -- losses in California, Maine and New York aren't enough to beat back the victories in four other states this year (and likely the District of Columbia in early 2010). Marriage equality is still inevitable, even if the wave of victories in 2009 didn't quite turn into an avalanche.

(Photo courtesy of exgaysurvivordan's photostream on Flickr.)