'Steer Into the Skid' to Maintain Momentum on Climate Legislation
Climate negotiations don't need to be restarted, or rebooted. And we don't need to rip up progress made and start again. Instead, we can maintain momentum, and "steer into the skid."
In a wide-ranging paper (PDF) Alex Evans and David Steven, both fellows at the Center on International Cooperation and editors of GlobalDashboard.org discuss how the conversation and negotiations post Copenhagen should continue if we want to break the impasse witnessed. Their recommendations are ambitious, but realistic and certainly possible.
Since Bali, the politics and progress has gone in a backward direction. The authors of the paper explain that the likelihood of comprehensive deal emerging in Mexico is low following Hopenhagen not becoming a reality. But they suggest that rather than hitting the brakes (and completely rebooting) "deal makers need to steer into the skid by building on unprecedented engagement by heads of states." They suggest this can happen by demanding the United States pass legislation, and change how developing countries are engaged. Their specific recommendations are particularly compelling:
They suggest that countries rebuild trust in science (somewhat eroded by the over-the-top reaction to the leaked climate emails by much of the media), as developing any costly climate policy requires public confidence. A further mature discussion of the risks that notes the nature, timing and likely distribution of climate change could give the public a better idea of why it's worth taking action: not just because the science is conclusive, but because it's too risky, as we're already seeing, to do nothing.
Perhaps their best advice is pursing 'quick wins' like the deforestation deal that was done at Copenhagen. With it, and with more, we can build momentum in the next year. These building blocks could be included and add up to a deal that's much more comprehensive — we can have policy in place, and note how well it's already working rather than wait to agree things at the highest level. As with that deforestation deal, developed countries need to recognize how important it is to get the developing world on board — the developing world will contribute 97% towards the rise in emissions between now and 2050, so the developed world must make it clear how much they're working to cut emissions before they expect those poorer to make green investments rather than continue to rely on cheap coal etc.
Quite simply, we mustn't stop. Most importantly: we mustn't sit still and hope something good happens in Mexico. We are not only the change that we've been waiting for. We are the change the world desperately needs.
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