Steve Carell, Eat Your Heart Out

Baton the hatches! Lock up the women! Run for your lives, the weathermen are coming!

Well, at least that's what I thought after reading the latest cover story in the Columbia Journalism Review. This is the kind of story that makes me wish I had found it first: Charles Homans has put his finger on the source of America's confusion over climate science. It was right in front us and we missed it.

Weathermen! Weathermen are behind the Nation's total confusion over climate change. According to the article, a recent (non scientific) survey showed that 29% of weatherman think global warming is "the greatest scam in history." A big chunk of the the rest of them are somewhere in the "skeptical" camp. Forty four of the "experts" on James Inhofe's list of climate doubting scientists are actually weathermen.

However, another survey found only half of weathermen have even a bachelor's degree in meteorology. Only 17% had an advanced degree. And yet these people are the closest thing to a scientist that many Americans see on TV, now that Steve Irwin is dead.  Sixty-six percent of Americans in a 2008 survey said they trusted  the weatherman to give them the straight climate scoop more than Al Gore, the presidential candidates, or religious leaders.

Now, I am not saying I trust Al Gore, Barack Obama or my pastor to lecture me on methane levels, but the weatherman? Really? But on a certain level, it makes sense. In fact it perfectly highlights the difference between "weather" and "climate." Weather is the evanescent daily or weekly flux of storms, clouds and sunny days. Climate generally refers to long-term states of the atmosphere.

Climatologists and weathermen use computer models, but the weatherman's version is a highly inaccurate crapshoot that essentially tries to parse order from chaos. Climate models still have uncertainty, but are based on large, very predictable overriding forces.

Think of it this way. Weathermen (here I am talking of that 17%) are like a gambler trying to guess if the Vegas dealer has a full house or three of a kind. Climatologists are like the casino, which knows that either way, it's statistically guaranteed to make make money at the end of the night.

The odd thing about this story is while a groundswell of weathermen seem to doubt climate data they don't really understand, the American Meteorological Society (their professional association) has long since signed on to climate change. In fact, the group is sheepishly attempting to educate its members, so they stop making the group look bad to the real scientists.

My favorite quote of the article was from an Oklahoma City forecaster who said "I'm not smart enough to know [if the Earth is warming], and I don't think any person on the planet is."

Well, he was half right. Ladies and gentleman, I give you the next member of Sen. Inhofe's staff.

Photo credit: NOAA