Stop Global Warming's Predictions for 2009

What's year-end blogging without a few guesses for what the new year will bring? I won't have to find out, because here are Stop Global Warming's climate and sustainability predictions for 2009:

Temperature:

On temperature, why make my own prediction, when the capable folks at Britain's reputable Met Office have done it for me? 2009 will be one of the top-five warmest on record, say researchers at the Met Office. Temperatures will be more than 0.72 degrees Farenheit (0.4 degrees celsius) hotter than the long-term average.

Biodiversity:

At least one animal species will be declared extinct in the wild as a direct result of climate change, because its habitat has become too warm and it has nowhere else to go. (2008 saw the likely extinction of Australia's white possum, because of a temperature rise of up to 0.8 degrees C. in its high forest habitat .)

Politics:

Congress will begin to work on carbon cap-and-trade legislation. Seriously.

The Obama administration will sidestep Congressional foes and go directly to the public, using the internet to rally mass support for the bill.

Insurance companies will also pressure Congress to pass the law. They promise Congress that they'll resume insuring homes in coastal communities (which they've been dropping because of the growing risks from extreme storms due to global warming), as long as Congress reduces their risk by capping and reducing carbon emissions, and funding clean energy.

Only thing is, with so much attention on the Three Re's -- re-regulating the financial sector, recovering the economy, and reforming health care -- this legislation will be on a slow track, unlikely to pass until 2010. That won't be in time for the US to lead strongly at December's climate treaty negotiations in Copenhagen, sharply reducing the chance that an effective successor to the Kyoto Protocol will come out of the negotiations.

Clean Tech/Renewable Energy:

With oil around $40 a barrel as the year begins, and coal still cheap, fewer homeowners will be willing to pay a premium for green tech such as solar panels, unless states or the federal government come forward with subsidies, and the tech is at least competitive with energy from the grid in cost and reliability.

On the upside, federal investment in research, development, and use of renewable energy will increase. Congress re-authorized a crucial renewable energy tax credit in 2008, which will help fuel expansion of clean power generation in 2009. The new Energy Secretary, Steven Chu, will very likely develop a comprehensive plan for national energy security that includes fast expansion of clean domestic sources of power.

And, if a good green jobs initiative is part of President Obama's economic recovery plan, it will include weatherization and retrofitting programs that will employ thousands in making homes and other buildings more energy efficient.

Lifestyle:

As the recession continues, companies will get even more desperate to attract worried consumers to their products. Corporate greenwashing will intensify as each tries to make its particular brands of blue jeans, bottled drinks, or breakfast cereals stand out from the crowd.

Sales of most organic foods will continue to flatten due to everyone's financial worries. But more consumers will turn to alternate food suppliers -- such as greenmarkets, or direct-from-farm purchasing clubs ("community supported agriculture").

Other "green" products that are -- or seem to be -- better for one's health will continue to sell well, including non-toxic paints and other home renovation/decor products, and "green" or organic personal care products like lotions, soaps, and shampoos. People will see them as small affordable luxuries in a difficult economic time.

The New Craft movement will burst the last of its alterna-culture bonds and go fully mainstream as part of "the new frugality." "Crafting green" -- making things by hand using organic and/or recycled materials -- will be a particularly vibrant sub-current of crafting culture.

Movies:

Hollywood will start to make dystopia movies in numbers and quality not seen since the last heyday of the genre, in the 1970s. Inspirations will include: ongoing revelations about the corporate lawlessness and financial excesses, the economic recession, fears of global warming and general environmental collapse, tensions between the nuclear powers India and Pakistan, and reflection on the politics of the Bush era.

Remakes will include 1973's Soylent Green (which will end with the hero's desperate cry, "Soylent Green contains melamine!"); and 1971's Silent Running (orbiting domes containing the world's forests are brought home for replanting, while Wall Street is exiled to drift forever in outer space).

Television:

Kim Stanley Robinson's "Mars Trilogy" is finally turned into a kick-ass mini-series produced and written by Jane Espenson and Ron Moore, for a prestige pay cable channel like HBO or Showtime.

(Hey, a gal can dream.)

Image: Concept drawing for an urban vertical farm. Via EcoFriend.