Sudan’s Dangerous Trajectory

A new military offensive in Darfur, the arrest of political leaders, and the shutting down of newspapers in Khartoum: election season must be over in Sudan. Emboldened by electoral “success,” Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) are sending troubling signals about their philosophy that will guide post-election governance.

The push last Friday by the Sudanese Armed Forces to regain control over a stronghold of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in West Darfur kicked off seven days of violence and repression. The army reported that it killed 108 JEM fighters in the assault. Elsewhere in Darfur, JEM allegedly attacked a tanker truck killing 20 Sudanese police officers. Continued clashes between nomadic tribes and the kidnapping of humanitarian aid workers — including an American — have only heightened tensions throughout Darfur.

Commenting yesterday on these recent developments before the United Nations Security Council, the Joint Special Representative for the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) stated that continued fighting in Darfur has “caused substantial civilian casualties, the displacement of communities, and hampered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.” The U.S. State Department earlier in the week also condemned the “recent offensive actions in Darfur” and “urged both the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebel movements to refrain from any further actions that would undermine the Darfur peace process or endanger civilians.”

Yet, blithely ignoring the deteriorating conditions in Darfur, an NCP leader told Darfuri students this week that his party was seeking to deepen peace and foster a culture of national unity (article in Arabic). Most people in Darfur instead fear that the faltering peace process, government offensive, and continuing crisis in Jebel Marra proffer a new post-election reality.

Critics and opposition leaders in Khartoum share such concerns. On Saturday, national security forces arrested the leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party, Dr. Hassan Al Turabi, who has spoken out about the fraudulent elections. Security agents also stormed the offices of Turabi’s paper, closed the building, and confiscated materials, and arrested three journalists and the managing editor of the paper. Later in the week, two more newspapers were targeted by security agents and one other opposition leader was detained for three hours of interrogation. The African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies reports that the raids on the newspapers indicated that Sudanese authorities have renewed their use of pre-print censorship to suppress political opinion.

Taken together, the apparent crackdown on opposition leaders and newspapers, along with a military offensive in Darfur, appears to represent a dangerous new course chosen by the Bashir government. With this emboldened mentality, a peace agreement in Darfur will remain elusive and politics in Khartoum will become even more polarized. There is also the question of which face the regime will put forward while implementing the final stages of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement with the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. If Bashir and the NCP approach the upcoming referendum for South Sudan in the same way that they have taken on Darfur and the northern opposition this week, peace for the entire country could be in jeopardy.

It is for this reason that today the Save Darfur Coalition sent a letter to U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice and U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration urging the United States “to issue a forceful statement that these actions are completely unacceptable and that, if they continue, Bashir and the hardliners in his party will face new consequences and only isolate themselves further” (full text here). Highlighting the warnings from UNAMID about the situation in Darfur, this letter also asked “the United States to lead the international community in applying appropriate pressure on both the Sudanese government and the Darfur armed rebel movements” so that UNAMID can carry out its mission to protect civilians robustly and effectively. On this issue, the Save Darfur Coalition sent another letter this week with recommendations on improving security to the United Nations Security Council.

Next week Omar Al Bashir will participate in presidential inaugural festivities. Human Rights Watch has urged governments to boycott the inauguration in light of the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against the Sudanese president. This would be a necessary but not sufficient statement from the international community. Those within the regime in Khartoum must understand that political impunity cannot be attained through fraudulent elections and, moreover, that their recent actions undermine any concurrent promises of reform and peace. Unless this message is clearly sent from the United States and other countries, the current political trajectory of Bashir and the NCP will have no reason to change, which would endanger even more innocent lives in Sudan.

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