T minus Four Days and Counting

The big day is coming.  On Wednesday, the International Criminal Court will end months of suspense and finally announce whether it will issue an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.

The question - oft debated - is whether the benefits of charging Bashir (no justice, no peace) outweigh the risks (Sudanese Government retaliating by attacking civilians and aid workers).

And soon we'll know the answer.

Rob Crilly, a mostly-reputable journalist and a friend from Nairobi-days, is now in Darfur, posting updates on his blog African Safari.  On Thursday, Rob gave a sense of what it's like on the ground:

"Communications in Nyala, capital of South Darfur, are next to impossible. The mobile phone networks have been running at a fraction of normal capacity for the past few days - a sure sign that the government is either planning a big push or wants to underline its control of the region. Many NGOs rely on the mobile network for the internet too, so clusters of aid workers can be found anywhere with a satellite connection.

Charities, which are looking after millions of people living in camps, are preparing to batten down the hatches...Trips to the field are being cut back and food and water hoarded in case of an extended period of unrest.

It is easy to see why. Last weekend Salah Gosh, head of Sudan's National Security and Intelligence Service and one of the key members of the regime's engine room, won a promotion in rank and celebrated by warning the world that the ICC decision could have serious repercussions...

'We were Islamic extremists then became moderate and civilized believing in peace and life for everyone.  However, we will revert back to how we were if necessary.  There is nothing any easier than that.'"

[To read the rest of Rob's post, see here.]

Which is fascinating for any number of reasons.  First, is it just me, or did Gosh call Islamic extremists uncivilized?  If so, he'll have any amount of explaining to do at the next jihadist disco night.

Second, in the interests of accuracy, the phrase "believing in peace and life for everyone" should probably read "believing in peace and life for everyone, except the hundreds of thousands of people we've slaughtered in Darfur.  They don't count."

Third, and most important, Rob's piece highlights the very real risk that the ICC's actions could make the situation worse, at least in the short-run.  My own, personal soap-box issue.   As Rob writes:

"There's no doubt that the prosecution of Bashir is the way to find justice in Darfur. But the atmosphere in Nyala, hub for many of the agencies responsible for protecting and providing for the region's displaced, suggests that it comes with a cost. The cost is the ability of aid workers to reach people in need."

We'll find out on Wednesday.

- For more information about what's happening, please read the daily updates from my genocide co-blogger Michelle.  She not only provides more information than anyone else I know, but also scoops me with depressing regularity.  (As she did with Rob's piece.)

- Alex de Waal just published a short article estimating the number of civilian deaths in Darfur last year.

- For the most recent UN humanitarian update on Darfur, see here.

[Sudanese President Omar Bashir, pointing either towards the glorious future or the courageous past - Photo from black-african-woman.blogspot.com]