The "China Question" and the Challenge for Obama on Darfur

After a long, exhausting week--mostly exhilarating, but that can be quite tiring--I was tempted to go home and crash last night. I can't tell you how glad I am that I didn't.

The Save Darfur Coalition Activists Conference opened last night in Washington, DC with a salon discussion featuring Professor Gary Bass, who offered a sobering assessment of the challenges President-Elect Barack Obama will face once he's in the White House.

First, Dr. Bass reminded us that, while Obama, VP-Elect Joe Biden, and their advisers take Darfur very seriously, the issue is not at the top of their list of concern. The flailing economy, Iraq, and Afghanistan will take precedence, not to mention the fact that Obama will have to manage the damage of the Bush administration, which is widely regarded as a failed presidency. (Though I think it's worth saying, his policies towards Africa, and his more recent stance towards Darfur, haven't been all bad.)

In the midst of this, the conflict in Darfur offers no easy resolution for a new President with an already-full plate. On the most basic diplomatic level, relations with Russia are quite bad, following the Georgia conflict earlier this year, and the Darfur issue seriously "muddies the water" with China. Yet it is absolutely essential to engage China in Darfur crisis management, because of the nation's close ties to Sudan.

The "China Question": Talking their Talk

Dr. Bass, who just returned from a trip to China, stressed the need to approach China in a manner that engages rather than berates, that uses rhetoric and arguments that speak to China's interest and world view, rather than with a belligerent tone that constantly paints them as "the bad guys." (So none of this Gen-Gen Genocide business--it's really counterproductive.) I learned the value of this in my days in legislative politics: You have to approach people in way that will make them listen. As frustrating as it may be, moral arguments often do not have much purchase, so you have to figure out what will grab the attention of your targets, and craft your argument accordingly. Some people see this as selling out. I see it as the smart way to achieve your ultimate goal. If the language of international human rights has no purchase with the Chinese government, it makes no sense to keep beating that drum.

So what's the deal with China? Dr. Bass said that China is "feeling good" these days, no longer seeing itself as a "rising power," but one that has already risen. The key, then, is to speak to China's desire to remain a world power--and to focus on the lessons learned by past U.S. misuse of its hegemonic position. Supporting violent dictators is not behavior becoming to a world power--nor is it in said power's best interest, as it sows the seeds for hatred among the oppressed country's population that will, to put it delicately, come back and bite you in the you-know-what later on.

Dr. Bass offered the example of past U.S. relationships with horrible governments in the Middle East, which produced resentful populations within these countries. The key, then, is to point out to China that their actions now are sowing the seeds for problems later on--20 years from now, no one in Zimbabwe or Sudan will be terribly keen on signing oil and trade contracts with the nation that once supported their brutal oppression.

The Genocide Convention: Another Point of Leverage

The Chinese government, as Dr. Bass highlighted, signed and ratified the UN Genocide Convention, and thus has certain obligations to fulfill in instances of genocide. But, thus far, the U.S. is the only government to declare Darfur a genocide--not even the UN has stepped up to the plate. This all may change if the International Criminal Court hands down an indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on the genocide charge (he was also charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity). Such an indictment could be used to push China to comply with its obligations under the Genocide Convention. But as of now, this is pure speculation--we won't know until an indictment is, or isn't, issued.

What now?

After the veritable euphoria following Obama's resounding electoral victory on Tuesday, it's now necessary to ground ourselves in the realities our new president will face. For activists, Dr. Bass recalled Tony Lake's comment that "the biggest thing in Washington is setting the agenda." Activists play a key role in putting an item on the agenda, by "making the phones ring"--making our voices heard. President Obama will have a seemingly insurmountable set of challenges in need of immediate attention--the image of Sisyphus pushing the bolder up the hill comes to mind--but he does care about Darfur, and it's important for us to make sure it stays on his agenda.

In that regard, I direct you to Save Darfur.