The Global Economic Downturn and Global Health
The worsening global economic situation is scaring the spit out of all Americans. But, frightening as it is in the developed world, it may well hit the developing world harder. While some protection will be provided to the countries that are less connected to the world economy, everyone is going to take a hit. Here are a few of the most obvious consequences for global health:
(Before I start, I want to point out that UNICEF has written a really excellent paper on this. I'll be reviewing it in my next blog post. For now I'll just give you my own take. We'll find out tomorrow how closely that coincides with UNICEF.)
Hunger
This one is tragically obvious. A weak global economy means less income, and less income means less food. Malnutrition rates will rise across the board, throughout the world. I think people are going to be surprised by how bad malnutrition will get in some developed countries, and I think that it's going to be gruesome in places that are already food insecure, like Somalia and Afghanistan.
Girls
It is generally accepted that girls and women suffer most during uncertain economic times (although I have seen evidence to the contrary). Already lowest family priority in many countries, girls tend to lose a disproportionately large share of shrinking family resources. Families put their money into boys, expecting them to become breadwinners. The global downturn will lead to lower educational attainment by girls, earlier marriage, and a worsening of female health status. It may also see girls enter sex work in greater numbers, whether because they were sold by their parents, or as a deliberate, desperate, decision to earn money.
Childbearing patterns
Global economic problems will exacerbate existing patterns. In countries where children are a cost-center, we'll see even lower fertility rates. In countries where children are a profit-center, rates will go up. So we'll see fewer children per capita in countries like Sweden and Japan, where child rearing is expensive and children do not contribute money or labor to the family. In countries like Pakistan or Bolivia, where children contribute to the family income, birth rates will rise. Russia could go either way. Nobody understands Russian fertility.
A teeny-tiny glimpse of optimism
Within national budgets, foreign aid makes up a vanishingly small percentage of total spending. In 1975, donor nations got together and made a historic pledge. They would dedicate a fixed percentage of their GDP to foreign aid. A whole .7%. Less than one percent of their total budgets. And, of course, they haven't actually achieved that target.
That bit is depressing. But the silver lining is that it's really not worth cutting aid budgets, not even in an economic downturn. There is no reason that donor assistance should shrink. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have already explicitly stated that they will not cut aid as a result of the economic situation. We're also starting to see encouraging comments from donors.
If foreign aid levels are maintained, we'll be able to protect the poorest and most vulnerable from some consequences of the financial downturn. It's not much, but it is something.
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