The Luntz Memo: Who Do You Trust?

This will be my last thought on the leaked Luntz strategy memo on messaging the Republican opposition to health care for a little while.  The most fascinating part for me is that, after months of hearing that private insurance is better than public, that SCHIP steals customers from private insurance, that the public plan would steal even more customers, and that private insurance has a right to the 15-20% more per beneficiary being hustled paid to them through Medicare Advantage, Luntz has a new piece of advice for conservatives:  throw the insurance industry under the bus.  No one trusts them.

He specially suggests Republicans represent their opposition to reform as opposition to bailing out the private insurance industry - an industry that Republicans welcomed with open arms into public coverage programs, through Medicare Advantage, Medicare Part D and privatizing part of the VA system.  The why is obvious – despite what Karen Ignagni of AHIP and all the other free-market fans at last Tuesday’s roundtable at the Senate Finance Committee claim, people just don’t see the problem with health insurance as a question of insufficient regulation that can be fixed with tweaks.  They see it as a fundamentally broken system:

The status quo is no longer acceptable.  The overwhelming majority of Americans believe significant reform is needed – and they see Republicans (and the insurance companies) as the roadblock….

A quick scan of the polling data below shows that there is no love lost for insurance companies – primarily because of their perceived profitability, a lack of accessibility, their lack of accountability, and an excess of bureaucracy.  In fact, notice how many of the top complaints involve health insurance in some way.

That’s reason number one why none of the arguments of Roy Blunt and his fellow House Republicans that private insurance must be allowed to have a monopoly and be protected from competition have made much headway.  Blasting the insurance industry prompts problems other problems of credibility.  After all, the 2008 RNC platform's plan for health care plan predicated on less regulation for the private insurance industry.  They’ve defended the private insurance industry for so long, can they really get separation from them enough to score political points?  And also, if you can’t say government will fix health care, and you can’t say private insurance will fix health care, then your solution is… what?

Reason number two is that Republicans have a credibility problem all on their own.  As First Read reported yesterday:

Even with Bush and Cheney no longer heading the party, the GOP finds its favorability ratings at or near all-time lows. Despite their enthusiasm for their unified opposition to Obama (on the stimulus, the budget), they're blamed more for the lack of bipartisanship in DC.

So if Americans don’t trust private insurance on health care, and they don’t trust Republicans on health care, who do they trust?  Yeah, you guessed it – that Hope guy who just won the most decisive victory in a presidential election since 1988.  February’s Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that 72% trust President Obama’s judgment on health care somewhat or a great deal – a number that beat everyone else, including the 60% for doctors.  (Interesting note:  they didn’t ask about nurses).  That number will likely go down eventually, but will it be enough for trust in Republicans trump the bully pulpit from the White House?

The most important words in Luntz’s memo are:  “If the dynamic becomes “President Obama and Congressional Democrats are on the side of reform and Republicans are against it,” -- which is exactly what Obama has already started to promote -- the public will side with the Democrats and you will lose both the communication and the policy.”  It may be possible for Republicans to find a way to attack the president’s plan without seeming to attack Obama, but I can’t quite see how, no matter how many scary stories of denial of care they make up dredge up.  You have to trust the messenger to trust the message.

(Photo credit:  tsevis on Flickr.)