The Nuclear Middle East

by Charles Lenchner · 2008-10-06 05:37:00 UTC
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Not a week passes without some reference to Iran’s nuclear program. The Western powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency pronounce with dreary regularity that something must be done to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. This is reminiscent of similar headlines from before the invasion of Iraq. What do we know?

The conflict over nuclear weapons is likely to be with us over the next few years. Who is saying what? What is not being said? And finally, what is the role of the citizenry in the Middle East and elsewhere? This is your primer.

The (alleged) status quo

Since 1969, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has brought together the 5 known nuclear powers (US, USSR, UK, France and China) with most of the rest of the world in an agreement to keep the nuclear club closed. The logic is that countries with nuclear aspirations will agree to forego nuclear weapons in exchange for assistance in developing and using nuclear power. The IAEA  is the UN agency that monitors nuclear proliferation while helping countries work together for the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Four countries are not party to the IAEA: Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. All of them are known to have developed nuclear weapons, and some of them have been accused of helping other countries develop their own.

A recurring theme of international politics is the possibility/threat that a country will join the nuclear club and upset the regional balance of power. In the Middle East this is especially problematic, because of the simmering conflicts between well armed and unstable states.

Iraq

In 1981, Israel bombed the Iraqi nuclear at Osirak in a move designed to prevent Iraq from getting a nuclear weapon. In 1991 The United States liberated Kuwait and invaded Iraq. From 1991 – 2002, the U.S. and the IAEA were at the forefront of efforts to make sure that Saddam Hussein didn’t acquire any weapons of mass destruction, ultimately leading to the invasion of 2002. Critics – among them most people not named Ann Coulter – have accused the Bush administration of using the issue of WMD’s as a way to con the American public into supporting the invasion, while masking other motives, such as oil.

Israel

Israel has pursued a policy of nuclear opacity, which means it neither confirms nor denies the existence of nuclear weapons in its arsenal. But everyone knows they have ‘em! [Yours truly once visited the Israeli air force base 'Egozi' near Zecharya where nuclear missiles are kept, while holding a Geiger counter.] Mordechai Vanunu is Israel’s famous ‘nuclear spy’ because he revealed secrets to the British Sunday Times in 1986. Allegedly, Israel has more than 200 nuclear bombs. It is widely alleged that Israel was cooperating with apartheid South Africa to help it develop nuclear weapons.

Iran

Iran has built an extensive network of nuclear research facilities. They are openly using locally built centrifuges to process uranium, into concentrations that would be good for both fuel and weapons. This is an ongoing story – which will be covered by yours truly. We can say that 1. Iran seems to be intent on doing whatever it wants on the nuclear front, 2. The U.S., Israel, UK, France and Germany are discussing the best way to get Iran to stop it, and 3. This conflict has the potential to go hot, with the U.S. or Israel using force to stop Iran.

Syria

Last year, Israel bombed a site in northern Syria that was (allegedly) a nuclear reactor under construction with North Korean help.  Syria is known to have chemical weapons, but was not though to be wealthy enough to pursue a nuclear weapons program.

No other Middle Eastern states are thought to be pursuing a nuclear weapons program at this time. Non state actors such as al-Qaeda are presumably trying to acquire nuclear material to use as weapons.

Additional resources:

Charles Lenchner
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