The Office Pool: Gay Marriage in 2009

So it's not March Madness, your weekly NFL showdowns, or picking Powerball numbers, but we've got the hottest new pool for your office - which state in the U.S. will be the next to legalize gay marriage. The odds are in, and if we were betting men and women here @ gayrights.change.org, we'd certainly go with one of the five states below. These five states are showing real grassroots movement and energy toward marriage equality, and may just emerge as the next states in the debate over same-sex marriage. Place your bets, folks.

5. New Hampshire. Twas the day after Christmas, and all through the New Hampshire House (of Representatives), not a creature was stirring...except for Rep. Jim Splaine, a Portsmouth democrat who would like to place a gay marriage bill in front of New Hampshire lawmakers this year. The Granite State currently allows civil unions, but hasn't crossed the marriage equality threshold yet. Splaine thinks it's time they should, saying that marriage rights would confer a level of dignity and acceptance on gay couples that civil unions do not.  Now let's see if he can convince the New Hampshire legislature and New Hampshire's Governor, John Lynch, who opposes gay marriage.  Odds: 100 to 1.

4. Maine.  With more than 33,000 signatures of Maine voters who support marriage rights for same-sex couples, Equality Maine is ready and raring to go in the fight for gay marriage.  And in addition to these 33,000 signatures (all of which were obtained during a very cool Election Day campaign that had marriage equality supporters standing outside voting precincts to engage voters on the issue), a coalition of Maine religious leaders have also formed to support a statewide campaign for gay marriage.  That's the positive.  The negative is that a new group, the Maine Marriage Alliance, has formed to deny equal rights to same-sex couples.  They want a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, and are hoping they can get one on the ballot in the coming months or years.  Still, at this stage of the game, Maine looks like a strong possibility for marriage equality.  Odds: 75 to 1.

3. New York.  To paraphrase Frank Sinatra, if gay marriage can make it here, it can make it anywhere, right?  Well, we'll see.  Marriage equality proponents were thrilled with the Election results in New York state, hearing that Democrats had taken over the State Senate.  A gay marriage resolution had already passed the State Assembly, and current Gov. David Paterson supports gay marriage.  The last roadblock was the State Senate, which under Republican control refused to vote on the issue.  Gay rights supporters were hoping that the change in leadership would result in a change in marriage laws.  But a couple of rogue Senators put the kabash on that idea, and now gay marriage may take a backseat in 2009.  But the level of support for marriage equality in New York is higher than it's ever been, and until we see reason to think otherwise, New York's gotta be in the top three.  Odds: 65 to 1.

2. California.  What's to say here, really.  It used to be legal, it's just a matter of time before it is again.  And that could come as soon as March 2009, when the California State Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments on the constitutionality of Proposition 8, the anti-gay ballot measure that passed in November and rescinded the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry.  Last week, California Attorney General Jerry Brown issued an appeal to the State Supreme Court saying that in his office's opinion, Proposition 8 was indefensible and incompatible with the Constitution.  Now it's just a waiting game to see if the State Supreme Court agrees.  Odds: 45 to 1.

1. New Jersey.  The Garden State takes the top spot, with (1) recent polls showing that a majority of New Jersey voters support same-sex marriage, and (2) a recent statewide bipartisan commission issuing a 79-page report that says the state should replace civil unions with gay marriage.  Current Governor Jon Corzine has said he supports gay marriage, and will sign a bill enacting it if it reaches his desk.  Could 2009 be the year that happens?  Well, if you listen to state legislators like Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts, yes.  As he put it, the Commission's report calling for gay marriage should "spark a renewed sense of purpose and urgency to overcoming one of society's last remaining barriers to full equality for all residents. As I have said many times before, same-sex marriage in New Jersey is only a matter of 'when,' not 'if.'"  Odds: 25 to 1.