Three Reasons Not to Trust the New NOM-Hyped Gay Marriage Poll in California

On the morning after the conclusion of the Proposition 8 trial in U.S. District Court, the National Organization for Marriage's Brian Brown had this to tweet: "New poll: 54 percent of Californians still oppose ssm [same-sex marriage.]"

It may sound distressing to supporters of marriage equality, but if you look closely, you'll find that this new poll, conducted by the little-known firm ccAdvertising, should be laughed out of the room.  Here are a few reasons why:

1.  The questions are far from unbiased

Whether they're from Gallup, SurveyUSA, or California's own Field Poll, all reputable pollsters take pains to make their questions as impartial and non-partisan as possible. Not so with the ccAdvertising poll, which includes such questions as these:

• "Do you want the new Congress that will be elected in November to reject Obamacare before it can start affecting our lives?"
• "Do you support a national energy tax, also known as ‘cap and trade,' which will cost every family in America an additional $3,500 a year for energy consumption?"  (Note: This is a highly dubious figure.)

Moreover, just look at the marriage question itself, which echoes the preferred language of NOM and other same-sex marriage opponents: "Do you believe that only marriage between one man and one woman should be legal and binding in America?"  Just compare that to a May Gallup poll, which asked: "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?"

2.  ccAdvertising is a firm of questionable merit

This is how ccAdvertising describes its work:

"ccAdvertising is a leader in the communications industry, providing artificially intelligent personalized telephone surveys to commercial, political, congressional and non-profit clients. ccAdvertising surveys use interactive voice response technology (no pushing buttons) to conduct political polling and public opinion polls, to collect valuable information on respondents, to educate and notify respondents regarding current and relevant issues, to generate leads (sales leads, donor and volunteer acquisition), and to communicate with large numbers of people in a meaningful way."

Does "collect[ing] valuable information on respondents" and "educat[ing] and notify[ing] respondents regarding current issues" really sound like the work of a reputable polling firm?  The latter is nothing more than a PR-speak description of a push poll — a survey in which "using the guise of opinion polling, disinformation about a candidate or issue is planted in the minds of those being ‘surveyed.'"  The cap and trade issue question above is a perfect example.  It's no wonder that ccAdvertising was described by leading political news blog Talking Points Memo as "a favorite company for shadowy third-party groups," or that they've repeatedly sued, with varying degrees of success, to get around "do not call" laws.

3.  The results bear no resemblance to reality

The best reason that NOM's trumpeted result on same-sex marriage should be ignored comes from the poll itself, which provides a very useful baseline to measure its distance from the reality of public opinion.  Conveniently for us, ccAdvertising asked another question on gay rights: "Do you want Congress to remove the ‘don't ask, don't tell' policy that the military now operates under regarding homosexuals serving in the armed forces of America?"

The wording of this question is atrocious; it doesn't explain what the DADT policy is, it refers to gays using the loaded term "homosexual," and it fails to straightforwardly ask whether gays and lesbians should be allowed to openly serve, as other recent polls have done.

The ultimate proof, however, can be found by comparing the results.  ccAdvertising found a 51 percent majority against repealing DADT.  Let's see whether that agrees with a few more reputable national polls:

• CNN/Opinion Research, May 2010: 78 percent in favor of repeal, 20 percent against.
• ABC/Washington Post, February 2010: 75 percent agree that "homosexuals who DO publicly disclose their sexual orientation should be allowed to serve in the military."
• Quinnipiac University Poll, February 2010: 57 percent in favor of repeal.

Granted, these are national polls, not state polls. But would even Brian Brown claim that California — a very progressive state, which passed Proposition 8 by a much narrower margin than same-sex marriage bans in other states — is vastly more conservative on a gay rights issue than the country as a whole?

It remains to be seen whether a majority of Californians have come around to supporting marriage equality since November 2008. But things aren't looking good for NOM: National support for marriage equality continues to gradually increase, and even the organization's own Maggie Gallagher expects to lose the first round of the Prop 8 trial.

Gallagher, Brown, and NOM may try to shame marriage equality supporters by casting them as anti-democratic elitists standing against the will of the people.  But when they're reduced to grasping at straws like this laughable poll, they're the ones who should be embarrassed.

Photo credit: Californians Against Hate (Brian S. Brown, executive director of the National Organization for Marriage.)